Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Sacred Heart 32.9, New Hampshire 20.4 at Campus Field in Week 4. That is a solid edge: Sacred Heart wins about 79% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.5 points and 53.2 combined points.
New Hampshire is 1-3, scoring 16.5 and allowing 40 points per game (-23.5 per game). Sacred Heart is 0-3, scoring 18.3 and allowing 30.7 points per game (-12.4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between New Hampshire by 10 and Sacred Heart by 35 about 80% of the time.
Sacred Heart gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Sacred Heart by about 10.4.
Result: New Hampshire 13, Sacred Heart 20. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 5.5 points and the total by 20.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (New Hampshire / Sacred Heart) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Sacred Heart -4.5 → Sacred Heart -2.5 | 45.5 → 41.5 | +103 / -128 |
| DraftKings | Sacred Heart -4.5 → Sacred Heart -2.5 | 45.5 → 41.5 | +103 / -128 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Sacred Heart win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Sacred Heart -12.5 | 53.2 | 79% |
| Market consensus | Sacred Heart -2.5 | 41.5 | 53% |
| Blended projection | Sacred Heart -4 | 43.6 | 61% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Sacred Heart win probability
- model 79% · market (no-vig) 53% · difference +26 pts
- Margin
- model Sacred Heart -12.5 · market Sacred Heart -2.5 · difference +10.0 pts (Sacred Heart view)
- Total
- model 53.2 · market 41.5 · difference +11.7
Model margin is 10.0 pts more toward Sacred Heart than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | New Hampshire 20.4, Sacred Heart 32.9 | Sacred Heart 79%right winner | 5.5 | 20.2 |
| New formula | New Hampshire 18.5, Sacred Heart 34.3 | Sacred Heart 85%right winner | 8.8 | 19.9 |
Final: New Hampshire 13, Sacred Heart 20. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
New Hampshire vs Sacred Heart: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | New Hampshire | Sacred Heart |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.8 | 28.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.8 | 26.3 |
| Yards per play | 5.48 | 6.26 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.68 | 6.39 |
| Rushing yards per game | 157.8 | 235.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 204.5 | 161.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 188.8 | 175.5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 165.0 | 227.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.54 | 0.40 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| Sacks per game | 2.15 | 1.40 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.85 | 1.90 |
| Stat | New Hampshire | Sacred Heart |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01 | +0.11 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | +0.13 |
| Success rate | 40.1% | 44.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.8% | 45.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.2% | 11.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.7% | 13.7% |
| Havoc rate | 13.2% | 11.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.7% | 11.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.01 | 0.00 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.61 | 0.00 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 6 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.1 | 63.5 |
| Stat | New Hampshire | Sacred Heart |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05 | +0.12 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04 | +0.11 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.13 | +0.07 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04 | +0.18 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.4% | 46.9% |
| Passing success rate | 41.1% | 43.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.4% | 18.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.2% | 36.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.4% | 33.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.8% | 47.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.0% | 39.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 51.1% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 52.2% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: New Hampshire schedule · Sacred Heart schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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