Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Sacred Heart 28, Stonehill 17.7 at Campus Field in Week 6. That is a solid edge: Sacred Heart wins about 75% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.3 points and 45.6 combined points.
Stonehill is 1-4, scoring 16.6 and allowing 28 points per game (-11.4 per game). Sacred Heart is 2-3, scoring 19.8 and allowing 24.2 points per game (-4.4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Stonehill by 12 and Sacred Heart by 33 about 80% of the time.
Sacred Heart gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Sacred Heart by about 8.2.
Result: Stonehill 28, Sacred Heart 7. Stonehill won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 31.3 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Stonehill / Sacred Heart) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Sacred Heart -8.5 → Sacred Heart -7 | 43.5 | +236 / -309 |
| DraftKings | Sacred Heart -8.5 → Sacred Heart -7 | 43.5 | +236 / -309 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Sacred Heart win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Sacred Heart -10.5 | 45.6 | 75% |
| Market consensus | Sacred Heart -7 | 43.5 | 72% |
| Blended projection | Sacred Heart -7.5 | 44.9 | 70% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Sacred Heart win probability
- model 75% · market (no-vig) 72% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model Sacred Heart -10.3 · market Sacred Heart -7 · difference +3.3 pts (Sacred Heart view)
- Total
- model 45.6 · market 43.5 · difference +2.1
Model margin is 3.3 pts more toward Sacred Heart than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Stonehill 17.7, Sacred Heart 28.0 | Sacred Heart 75%wrong winner | 31.3 | 10.6 |
| New formula | Stonehill 18.3, Sacred Heart 27.8 | Sacred Heart 73%wrong winner | 30.5 | 11.2 |
Final: Stonehill 28, Sacred Heart 7. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Stonehill vs Sacred Heart: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Stonehill | Sacred Heart |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 15.1 | 28.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.1 | 26.3 |
| Yards per play | 4.57 | 6.26 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.94 | 6.39 |
| Rushing yards per game | 117.6 | 235.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 148.7 | 161.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 193.3 | 175.5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 182.3 | 227.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.58 | 0.40 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.08 | 0.60 |
| Sacks per game | 1.25 | 1.40 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.33 | 1.90 |
| Stat | Stonehill | Sacred Heart |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.11 | +0.11 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01 | +0.13 |
| Success rate | 35.4% | 44.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 42.3% | 45.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.3% | 11.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3% | 13.7% |
| Havoc rate | 11.0% | 11.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.4% | 11.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.66 | 0.00 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.92 | 0.00 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 58.3 | 63.5 |
| Stat | Stonehill | Sacred Heart |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.17 | +0.12 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.05 | +0.11 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04 | +0.07 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.09 | +0.18 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.3% | 46.9% |
| Passing success rate | 34.6% | 43.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 25.1% | 18.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.8% | 36.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.1% | 33.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.4% | 47.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.9% | 39.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 48.1% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Stonehill schedule · Sacred Heart schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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