Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Cornell 27.3, Georgetown 22.7 at Cooper Field in Week 5. That is a lean: Cornell wins about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.6 points and 49.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Cornell is 1-1, scoring 22.5 and allowing 22.5 points per game (+0 per game). Georgetown is 0-3, scoring 17.3 and allowing 29.7 points per game (-12.4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cornell by 27 and Georgetown by 18 about 80% of the time.
Georgetown gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Cornell is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Cornell 35, Georgetown 14. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 16.4 points and the total by 0.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Cornell / Georgetown) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Cornell -7.5 → Cornell -8.5 | 45.5 | -285 / +220 |
| DraftKings | Cornell -7.5 → Cornell -8.5 | 45.5 | -285 / +220 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Georgetown win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Cornell -4.5 | 49.9 | 38% |
| Market consensus | Cornell -8.5 | 45.5 | 30% |
| Blended projection | Cornell -8 | 46.9 | 30% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Georgetown win probability
- model 38% · market (no-vig) 30% · difference +9 pts
- Margin
- model Cornell -4.6 · market Cornell -8.5 · difference +3.9 pts (Georgetown view)
- Total
- model 49.9 · market 45.5 · difference +4.4
Model margin is 3.9 pts more toward Georgetown than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Cornell 27.3, Georgetown 22.7 | Cornell 62%right winner | 16.4 | 0.9 |
| New formula | Cornell 28.0, Georgetown 22.0 | Cornell 65%right winner | 15.0 | 1.1 |
Final: Cornell 35, Georgetown 14. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Cornell vs Georgetown: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Cornell | Georgetown |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.0 | 21.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.0 | 26.7 |
| Yards per play | 5.43 | 5.10 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.41 | 5.73 |
| Rushing yards per game | 158.8 | 179.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 233.7 | 182.1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 166.9 | 176.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 199.5 | 218.7 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50 | 0.92 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.30 | 1.08 |
| Sacks per game | 1.30 | 2.17 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.60 | 3.50 |
| Stat | Cornell | Georgetown |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.07 | -0.10 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02 | +0.10 |
| Success rate | 44.0% | 34.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.7% | 42.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.9% | 11.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.2% | 11.8% |
| Havoc rate | 13.1% | 10.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.0% | 14.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 2.87 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 3.08 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 72.3 | 70.9 |
| Stat | Cornell | Georgetown |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.03 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.11 | -0.16 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04 | +0.16 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.8% | 38.8% |
| Passing success rate | 45.1% | 35.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.3% | 23.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.9% | 26.0% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.6% | 31.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.9% | 41.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.0% | 38.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 45.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 51.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Cornell schedule · Georgetown schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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