Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Lehigh 34.1, Dartmouth 19.6 at Goodman Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Lehigh wins about 83% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14.5 points and 53.7 combined points.
Dartmouth has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Lehigh is 3-0, scoring 41.3 and allowing 14.7 points per game (+26.6 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Dartmouth by 8 and Lehigh by 37 about 80% of the time.
Lehigh gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Lehigh by about 12.4. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Dartmouth 20, Lehigh 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 10.5 points and the total by 9.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Dartmouth / Lehigh) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Lehigh -16.5 → Lehigh -17.5 | 50.5 | +577 / -960 |
| DraftKings | Lehigh -16.5 → Lehigh -17.5 | 50.5 | +577 / -960 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Lehigh win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Lehigh -14.5 | 53.7 | 83% |
| Market consensus | Lehigh -17.5 | 50.5 | 86% |
| Blended projection | Lehigh -17 | 51.4 | 88% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Lehigh win probability
- model 83% · market (no-vig) 86% · difference -3 pts
- Margin
- model Lehigh -14.5 · market Lehigh -17.5 · difference -3.0 pts (Lehigh view)
- Total
- model 53.7 · market 50.5 · difference +3.2
Model margin is 3.0 pts more toward Dartmouth than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Dartmouth 19.6, Lehigh 34.1 | Lehigh 83%right winner | 10.5 | 9.7 |
| New formula | Dartmouth 16.4, Lehigh 38.1 | Lehigh 90%right winner | 17.7 | 10.5 |
Final: Dartmouth 20, Lehigh 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Dartmouth vs Lehigh: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Dartmouth | Lehigh |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.4 | 31.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.3 | 13.9 |
| Yards per play | 6.09 | 6.78 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.42 | 4.85 |
| Rushing yards per game | 164.7 | 222.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 219.3 | 194.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 115.2 | 89.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 241.5 | 206.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 0.42 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| Sacks per game | 1.60 | 3.42 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.90 | 0.67 |
| Stat | Dartmouth | Lehigh |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04 | +0.10 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02 | -0.06 |
| Success rate | 45.7% | 45.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.8% | 38.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.7% | 16.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.9% | 10.4% |
| Havoc rate | 12.1% | 14.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.0% | 10.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.66 | 3.66 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.02 | 2.24 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.1 | 61.6 |
| Stat | Dartmouth | Lehigh |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.09 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.08 | +0.13 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05 | -0.09 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08 | -0.04 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.2% | 48.4% |
| Passing success rate | 46.3% | 46.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.7% | 18.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 37.0% | 33.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.7% | 27.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 55.0% | 46.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.2% | 35.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.8% | 35.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Dartmouth schedule · Lehigh schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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