Matchup analysis
Our model projects Central Connecticut 31, Stonehill 22 at W.B. Mason Stadium in Week 10. That is a solid edge: Central Connecticut wins about 71% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.7 points and 52.9 combined points.
Central Connecticut is 4-3 against the 82nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 34.4 and allowing 35 points per game (-0.6 per game). Stonehill is 3-5 against the 114th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 17 and allowing 21.9 points per game (-4.9 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Central Connecticut by 31 and Stonehill by 14 about 80% of the time.
Stonehill gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Central Connecticut is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Central Connecticut vs Stonehill: stat comparison
| Stat | Central Connecticut | Stonehill |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 34.4 | 17.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 35.0 | 21.9 |
| Yards per play | 6.12 | 5.13 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.52 | 5.72 |
| Rushing yards per game | 191.1 | 118.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 183.7 | 188.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 132.4 | 170.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 291.4 | 177.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.13 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.14 | 0.88 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 1.38 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.57 | 1.88 |
| Stat | Central Connecticut | Stonehill |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13 | -0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.15 | -0.00 |
| Success rate | 45.9% | 37.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.1% | 40.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 15.0% | 12.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.8% | 12.8% |
| Havoc rate | 14.9% | 12.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.2% | 15.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.72 | 3.40 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.57 | 2.89 |
| Average starting field position | opp 12 | opp 18 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | opp 15 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.3 | 59.9 |
| Stat | Central Connecticut | Stonehill |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.20 | -0.10 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04 | -0.01 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.11 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.17 | -0.02 |
| Rushing success rate | 51.9% | 36.0% |
| Passing success rate | 41.5% | 36.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.2% | 25.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.6% | 29.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.0% | 30.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.8% | 32.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.1% | 35.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 53.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 72.0% | 49.5% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Central Connecticut schedule · Stonehill schedule · all Week 10 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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