Matchup analysis
Our model projects Central Connecticut 32, Long Island University 21 at Shark Stadium in Week 11. That is a solid edge: Central Connecticut wins about 76% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11 points and 52.6 combined points.
Central Connecticut is 4-3 against the 57th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 34.4 and allowing 35 points per game (-0.6 per game). Long Island University is 3-6 against the 38th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 14.6 and allowing 25.9 points per game (-11.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Central Connecticut by 34 and Long Island University by 12 about 80% of the time.
Long Island University gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Central Connecticut is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Central Connecticut vs Long Island University: stat comparison
| Stat | Central Connecticut | Long Island University |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 34.4 | 14.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 35.0 | 25.9 |
| Yards per play | 6.12 | 4.12 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.52 | 6.03 |
| Rushing yards per game | 191.1 | 157.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 183.7 | 90.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 132.4 | 143.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 291.4 | 238.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 0.78 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.14 | 1.11 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 1.56 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.57 | 2.33 |
| Stat | Central Connecticut | Long Island University |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13 | -0.14 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.15 | +0.04 |
| Success rate | 45.9% | 32.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.1% | 45.9% |
| Explosive play rate | 15.0% | 8.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.8% | 13.8% |
| Havoc rate | 14.9% | 13.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.2% | 17.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.72 | 2.99 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.57 | 4.21 |
| Average starting field position | opp 12 | opp 14 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | opp 13 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.3 | 60.0 |
| Stat | Central Connecticut | Long Island University |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.20 | -0.10 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04 | -0.22 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.11 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.17 | +0.09 |
| Rushing success rate | 51.9% | 34.9% |
| Passing success rate | 41.5% | 26.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.2% | 23.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.6% | 25.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.0% | 29.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.8% | 29.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.1% | 46.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 42.2% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 72.0% | 62.7% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Central Connecticut schedule · Long Island University schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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