Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Duquesne 31.3, Long Island University 21 at Arthur J. Rooney Athletic Field in Week 6. That is a solid edge: Duquesne wins about 75% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.3 points and 52.3 combined points.
Long Island University is 1-5, scoring 14.3 and allowing 32 points per game (-17.7 per game). Duquesne is 1-3, scoring 18.3 and allowing 38 points per game (-19.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Long Island University by 12 and Duquesne by 33 about 80% of the time.
Duquesne gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Duquesne by about 8.2.
Result: Long Island University 17, Duquesne 14. Long Island University won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 13.3 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Long Island University / Duquesne) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Duquesne -3 → Duquesne -3.5 | 45.5 | +145 / -181 |
| DraftKings | Duquesne -3 → Duquesne -3.5 | 45.5 | +145 / -181 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Duquesne win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Duquesne -10.5 | 52.3 | 75% |
| Market consensus | Duquesne -3.5 | 45.5 | 61% |
| Blended projection | Duquesne -4.5 | 47.0 | 62% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Duquesne win probability
- model 75% · market (no-vig) 61% · difference +14 pts
- Margin
- model Duquesne -10.3 · market Duquesne -3.5 · difference +6.8 pts (Duquesne view)
- Total
- model 52.3 · market 45.5 · difference +6.8
Model margin is 6.8 pts more toward Duquesne than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Long Island University 21.0, Duquesne 31.3 | Duquesne 75%wrong winner | 13.3 | 21.3 |
| New formula | Long Island University 20.1, Duquesne 32.0 | Duquesne 78%wrong winner | 14.9 | 21.1 |
Final: Long Island University 17, Duquesne 14. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Long Island University vs Duquesne: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Long Island University | Duquesne |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 16.4 | 28.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.8 | 25.3 |
| Yards per play | 5.32 | 6.20 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.60 | 5.51 |
| Rushing yards per game | 196.2 | 201.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 156.6 | 191.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 140.7 | 150.5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 159.4 | 189.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.82 | 0.67 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.82 | 0.67 |
| Sacks per game | 1.55 | 1.67 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.09 | 1.33 |
| Stat | Long Island University | Duquesne |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.09 | +0.08 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.10 | +0.05 |
| Success rate | 39.2% | 42.8% |
| Success rate allowed | 38.3% | 42.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2% | 13.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.5% | 13.3% |
| Havoc rate | 14.0% | 15.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.8% | 13.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.82 | 3.37 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.50 | 4.15 |
| Average starting field position | opp 16 | opp 16 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 13 | opp 11 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.3 | 63.4 |
| Stat | Long Island University | Duquesne |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.03 | +0.10 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.16 | +0.06 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04 | +0.05 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.17 | +0.03 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.8% | 47.3% |
| Passing success rate | 37.8% | 38.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 27.4% | 18.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.9% | 28.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.1% | 32.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.8% | 36.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.6% | 38.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 41.5% | 56.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 54.4% | 59.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Long Island University schedule · Duquesne schedule · all Week 6 projections
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