Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Long Island University 21.2, Stonehill 19.4 at Shark Stadium in Week 8. That is a genuine toss-up: Long Island University wins about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.8 points and 40.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
Stonehill is 2-5, scoring 16.9 and allowing 23 points per game (-6.1 per game). Long Island University is 3-5, scoring 14.6 and allowing 26.9 points per game (-12.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Stonehill by 21 and Long Island University by 24 about 80% of the time.
Long Island University gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Stonehill would be favoured by 0.3.
Result: Stonehill 18, Long Island University 14. Stonehill won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 5.8 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Stonehill 19.4, Long Island University 21.2 | Long Island University 55%wrong winner | 5.8 | 8.5 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Stonehill 18, Long Island University 14. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Stonehill vs Long Island University: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Stonehill | Long Island University |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 15.1 | 16.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.1 | 18.8 |
| Yards per play | 4.57 | 5.32 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.94 | 4.60 |
| Rushing yards per game | 117.6 | 196.2 |
| Net passing yards per game | 148.7 | 156.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 193.3 | 140.7 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 182.3 | 159.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.58 | 0.82 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.08 | 0.82 |
| Sacks per game | 1.25 | 1.55 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.33 | 1.09 |
| Stat | Stonehill | Long Island University |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.11 | -0.09 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| Success rate | 35.4% | 39.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 42.3% | 38.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.3% | 11.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3% | 10.5% |
| Havoc rate | 11.0% | 14.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.4% | 16.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.66 | 2.82 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.92 | 3.50 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 16 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 13 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 58.3 | 66.3 |
| Stat | Stonehill | Long Island University |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.17 | -0.03 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.16 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.09 | -0.17 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.3% | 40.8% |
| Passing success rate | 34.6% | 37.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 25.1% | 27.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.8% | 27.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.1% | 26.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.4% | 37.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.9% | 40.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 41.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 48.1% | 54.4% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Stonehill schedule · Long Island University schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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