Matchup analysis
Our model projects Robert Morris 23, Long Island University 20 at Joe Walton Stadium in Week 12. That is a genuine toss-up: Robert Morris wins about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.4 points and 42.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
Long Island University is 3-6 against the 38th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 14.6 and allowing 25.9 points per game (-11.3 per game). Robert Morris is 4-4 against the 105th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.8 and allowing 23.9 points per game (+0.9 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Long Island University by 20 and Robert Morris by 25 about 80% of the time.
Robert Morris gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Robert Morris by about 0.3. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Long Island University vs Robert Morris: stat comparison
| Stat | Long Island University | Robert Morris |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 14.6 | 24.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.9 | 23.9 |
| Yards per play | 4.12 | 5.77 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.03 | 5.48 |
| Rushing yards per game | 157.1 | 87.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 90.0 | 247.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 143.9 | 172.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 238.1 | 206.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.78 | 1.13 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.11 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 1.56 | 2.38 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.33 | 1.25 |
| Stat | Long Island University | Robert Morris |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.14 | -0.05 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.07 |
| Success rate | 32.9% | 34.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.9% | 41.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 8.2% | 11.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.8% | 13.6% |
| Havoc rate | 13.1% | 13.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 17.9% | 16.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.99 | 3.91 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.21 | 4.13 |
| Average starting field position | opp 14 | opp 18 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 13 | opp 17 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.0 | 58.1 |
| Stat | Long Island University | Robert Morris |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.20 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.22 | +0.06 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.12 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.09 | +0.03 |
| Rushing success rate | 34.9% | 28.1% |
| Passing success rate | 26.0% | 38.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 23.4% | 23.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.1% | 26.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.3% | 32.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 29.8% | 40.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.1% | 35.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 42.2% | 50.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.7% | 63.6% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Long Island University schedule · Robert Morris schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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