Matchup analysis
Our model projects Robert Morris 22, Stonehill 21 at Joe Walton Stadium in Week 11. That is a genuine toss-up: Robert Morris wins about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.3 points and 43 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
Stonehill is 3-5 against the 64th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 17 and allowing 21.9 points per game (-4.9 per game). Robert Morris is 4-4 against the 105th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.8 and allowing 23.9 points per game (+0.9 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Stonehill by 22 and Robert Morris by 23 about 80% of the time.
Robert Morris gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Stonehill would be favoured by 1.8. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Stonehill vs Robert Morris: stat comparison
| Stat | Stonehill | Robert Morris |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.0 | 24.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.9 | 23.9 |
| Yards per play | 5.13 | 5.77 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.72 | 5.48 |
| Rushing yards per game | 118.6 | 87.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 188.8 | 247.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 170.3 | 172.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 177.1 | 206.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.13 | 1.13 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.88 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 1.38 | 2.38 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.88 | 1.25 |
| Stat | Stonehill | Robert Morris |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.05 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.00 | +0.07 |
| Success rate | 37.1% | 34.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.0% | 41.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.0% | 11.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.8% | 13.6% |
| Havoc rate | 12.9% | 13.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.8% | 16.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.40 | 3.91 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.89 | 4.13 |
| Average starting field position | opp 18 | opp 18 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 15 | opp 17 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.9 | 58.1 |
| Stat | Stonehill | Robert Morris |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.20 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.01 | +0.06 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01 | +0.12 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.02 | +0.03 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.0% | 28.1% |
| Passing success rate | 36.3% | 38.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 25.1% | 23.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.1% | 26.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.5% | 32.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 32.0% | 40.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.6% | 35.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 53.6% | 50.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 49.5% | 63.6% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Stonehill schedule · Robert Morris schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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