Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Stonehill 24.8, Duquesne 24.7 at W.B. Mason Stadium in Week 7. That is a genuine toss-up: Stonehill wins about 50% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.1 points and 49.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Duquesne is 1-4, scoring 17.4 and allowing 33.8 points per game (-16.4 per game). Stonehill is 2-4, scoring 18.5 and allowing 24.5 points per game (-6 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Duquesne by 22 and Stonehill by 23 about 80% of the time.
Stonehill gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Duquesne would be favoured by 2.
Result: Duquesne 14, Stonehill 7. Duquesne won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 7.1 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Duquesne / Stonehill) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Stonehill -2.5 → Stonehill -4.5 | 46.5 → 43.5 | +149 / -188 |
| DraftKings | Stonehill -2.5 → Stonehill -4.5 | 46.5 → 43.5 | +149 / -188 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Stonehill win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Pick'em | 49.5 | 50% |
| Market consensus | Stonehill -4.5 | 43.5 | 62% |
| Blended projection | Stonehill -4 | 45.2 | 60% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Stonehill win probability
- model 50% · market (no-vig) 62% · difference -12 pts
- Margin
- model Stonehill -0.1 · market Stonehill -4.5 · difference -4.4 pts (Stonehill view)
- Total
- model 49.5 · market 43.5 · difference +6.0
Model margin is 4.4 pts more toward Duquesne than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Duquesne 24.7, Stonehill 24.8 | Stonehill 50%wrong winner | 7.1 | 28.5 |
| New formula | Duquesne 25.9, Stonehill 23.9 | Duquesne 55%right winner | 5.0 | 28.9 |
Final: Duquesne 14, Stonehill 7. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Duquesne vs Stonehill: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Duquesne | Stonehill |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.4 | 15.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.3 | 23.1 |
| Yards per play | 6.20 | 4.57 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.51 | 5.94 |
| Rushing yards per game | 201.6 | 117.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 191.9 | 148.7 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 150.5 | 193.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 189.1 | 182.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.67 | 0.58 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67 | 1.08 |
| Sacks per game | 1.67 | 1.25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.33 | 2.33 |
| Stat | Duquesne | Stonehill |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08 | -0.11 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05 | -0.01 |
| Success rate | 42.8% | 35.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 42.0% | 42.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.1% | 9.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.3% | 12.3% |
| Havoc rate | 15.5% | 11.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.5% | 15.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.37 | 3.66 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.15 | 2.92 |
| Average starting field position | opp 16 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 11 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.4 | 58.3 |
| Stat | Duquesne | Stonehill |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10 | -0.17 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.06 | -0.05 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03 | -0.09 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.3% | 36.3% |
| Passing success rate | 38.0% | 34.6% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.1% | 25.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.2% | 26.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.7% | 29.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.7% | 34.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.6% | 43.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 56.8% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.9% | 48.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Duquesne schedule · Stonehill schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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