Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Howard 27, Alabama A&M 24.3 on a neutral field at Center Parc Stadium in Week 1. That is a genuine toss-up: Howard wins about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.7 points and 51.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Howard has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Alabama A&M has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Howard by 25 and Alabama A&M by 20 about 80% of the time.
Neutral site, so no home-field points either way. The game is on ABC.
Result: Howard 31, Alabama A&M 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4.3 points and the total by 3.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Howard / Alabama A&M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Alabama A&M -2.5 → Howard -1.5 | 46.5 | +100 / -124 |
| DraftKings | Alabama A&M -2.5 → Howard -1.5 | 46.5 | +100 / -124 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Alabama A&M win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Howard -2.5 | 51.2 | 43% |
| Market consensus | Howard -1.5 | 46.5 | 53% |
| Blended projection | Howard -1.5 | 47.8 | 45% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Alabama A&M win probability
- model 43% · market (no-vig) 53% · difference -10 pts
- Margin
- model Howard -2.7 · market Howard -1.5 · difference -1.2 pts (Alabama A&M view)
- Total
- model 51.2 · market 46.5 · difference +4.7
Model margin is 1.2 pts more toward Howard than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Howard 27.0, Alabama A&M 24.3 | Howard 57%right winner | 4.3 | 3.8 |
| New formula | Howard 26.5, Alabama A&M 27.3 | Alabama A&M 52%wrong winner | 7.8 | 1.3 |
Final: Howard 31, Alabama A&M 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Howard vs Alabama A&M: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Howard | Alabama A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.8 | 23.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.6 | 33.4 |
| Yards per play | 4.77 | 5.38 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.82 | 6.65 |
| Rushing yards per game | 138.7 | 125.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 159.5 | 222.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 178.4 | 201.5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 155.7 | 221.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.18 | 1.18 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.09 | 0.91 |
| Sacks per game | 2.36 | 1.36 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.09 | 2.27 |
| Stat | Howard | Alabama A&M |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.13 | -0.07 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.07 | +0.11 |
| Success rate | 36.2% | 38.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.0% | 44.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.6% | 10.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.9% | 15.6% |
| Havoc rate | 13.1% | 11.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.7% | 15.2% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.90 | 3.09 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.13 | 4.47 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.5 | 64.7 |
| Stat | Howard | Alabama A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04 | -0.11 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.25 | -0.02 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.08 | +0.05 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.07 | +0.18 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.1% | 42.6% |
| Passing success rate | 34.0% | 40.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.9% | 20.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.4% | 27.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.3% | 32.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.1% | 36.6% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.3% | 41.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 62.2% | 56.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.9% | 68.3% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Howard schedule · Alabama A&M schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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