Matchup analysis
Our model projects South Carolina State 39, Delaware State 16 at Oliver C. Dawson Stadium in Week 12. That is a heavy edge: South Carolina State wins about 93% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 23 points and 55.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Delaware State is 4-4 against the 124th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 22 and allowing 26 points per game (-4 per game). South Carolina State is 6-2 against the 155th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 40.9 and allowing 17.6 points per game (+23.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between a tie and South Carolina State by 46 about 80% of the time.
South Carolina State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour South Carolina State by about 20.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Delaware State vs South Carolina State: stat comparison
| Stat | Delaware State | South Carolina State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.0 | 40.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.0 | 17.6 |
| Yards per play | 5.80 | 6.78 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.50 | 4.87 |
| Rushing yards per game | 198.0 | 220.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 175.1 | 242.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 175.8 | 119.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 182.0 | 157.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.38 | 0.88 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Sacks per game | 2.25 | 3.00 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.88 | 0.88 |
| Stat | Delaware State | South Carolina State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.10 | +0.10 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09 | -0.01 |
| Success rate | 36.3% | 43.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 46.0% | 35.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.3% | 13.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9% | 12.8% |
| Havoc rate | 11.6% | 18.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 18.3% | 12.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.17 | 3.72 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.63 | 3.43 |
| Average starting field position | opp 9 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 9 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.4 | 68.4 |
| Stat | Delaware State | South Carolina State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04 | +0.07 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.23 | +0.12 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08 | -0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.6% | 48.6% |
| Passing success rate | 33.7% | 40.4% |
| Run stuff rate | 28.5% | 22.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.3% | 29.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.8% | 24.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.0% | 45.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.8% | 28.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 54.1% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 51.4% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Delaware State schedule · South Carolina State schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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