Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Pennsylvania 30.9, Howard 14.8 at Franklin Field in Week 6. That is a heavy edge: Pennsylvania wins about 85% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 16.1 points and 45.6 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Howard is 2-3, scoring 17.2 and allowing 35.6 points per game (-18.4 per game). Pennsylvania is 1-2, scoring 12.3 and allowing 13.7 points per game (-1.4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Howard by 6 and Pennsylvania by 39 about 80% of the time.
Pennsylvania gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Pennsylvania by about 14. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Howard 20, Pennsylvania 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 12.1 points and the total by 1.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Howard / Pennsylvania) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Pennsylvania -14 → Pennsylvania -11.5 | 42.5 | +406 / -590 |
| DraftKings | Pennsylvania -14 → Pennsylvania -11.5 | 42.5 | +406 / -590 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Pennsylvania win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Pennsylvania -16 | 45.6 | 85% |
| Market consensus | Pennsylvania -11.5 | 42.5 | 81% |
| Blended projection | Pennsylvania -12.5 | 44.1 | 80% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Pennsylvania win probability
- model 85% · market (no-vig) 81% · difference +4 pts
- Margin
- model Pennsylvania -16.1 · market Pennsylvania -11.5 · difference +4.6 pts (Pennsylvania view)
- Total
- model 45.6 · market 42.5 · difference +3.1
Model margin is 4.6 pts more toward Pennsylvania than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Howard 14.8, Pennsylvania 30.9 | Pennsylvania 85%right winner | 12.1 | 1.6 |
| New formula | Howard 15.1, Pennsylvania 31.2 | Pennsylvania 86%right winner | 12.2 | 2.3 |
Final: Howard 20, Pennsylvania 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Howard vs Pennsylvania: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Howard | Pennsylvania |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.8 | 27.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.6 | 26.5 |
| Yards per play | 4.77 | 5.93 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.82 | 5.64 |
| Rushing yards per game | 138.7 | 146.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 159.5 | 237.1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 178.4 | 143.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 155.7 | 229.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.18 | 0.90 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.09 | 0.70 |
| Sacks per game | 2.36 | 1.30 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.09 | 1.50 |
| Stat | Howard | Pennsylvania |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.13 | +0.10 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.07 | +0.07 |
| Success rate | 36.2% | 46.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.0% | 43.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.6% | 13.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.9% | 11.5% |
| Havoc rate | 13.1% | 12.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.7% | 12.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.90 | 3.66 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.13 | 3.02 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.5 | 64.7 |
| Stat | Howard | Pennsylvania |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.06 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.25 | +0.14 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.08 | +0.05 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.07 | +0.10 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.1% | 47.3% |
| Passing success rate | 34.0% | 47.6% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.9% | 19.0% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.4% | 37.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.3% | 32.8% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.1% | 52.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.3% | 49.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 62.2% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.9% | 46.8% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Howard schedule · Pennsylvania schedule · all Week 6 projections
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