Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected South Carolina State 27.1, Furman 22.8 at Paladin Stadium in Week 3. That is a lean: South Carolina State wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.3 points and 49.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
South Carolina State is 3-0, scoring 61.3 and allowing 4.3 points per game (+57 per game). Furman is 2-1, scoring 16.3 and allowing 24 points per game (-7.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between South Carolina State by 27 and Furman by 18 about 80% of the time.
Furman gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. South Carolina State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: South Carolina State 20, Furman 17. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.3 points and the total by 12.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (South Carolina State / Furman) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | South Carolina State -10 → South Carolina State -4.5 | 48.5 → 46.5 | -225 / +177 |
| DraftKings | South Carolina State -10 → South Carolina State -4.5 | 48.5 → 46.5 | -225 / +177 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Furman win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | South Carolina State -4.5 | 49.9 | 39% |
| Market consensus | South Carolina State -4.5 | 46.5 | 34% |
| Blended projection | South Carolina State -4.5 | 47.8 | 38% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Furman win probability
- model 39% · market (no-vig) 34% · difference +5 pts
- Margin
- model South Carolina State -4.3 · market South Carolina State -4.5 · difference +0.2 pts (Furman view)
- Total
- model 49.9 · market 46.5 · difference +3.4
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | South Carolina State 27.1, Furman 22.8 | South Carolina State 61%right winner | 1.3 | 12.9 |
| New formula | South Carolina State 35.5, Furman 19.2 | South Carolina State 86%right winner | 13.4 | 17.7 |
Final: South Carolina State 20, Furman 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
South Carolina State vs Furman: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | South Carolina State | Furman |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.4 | 24.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.2 | 31.0 |
| Yards per play | 5.91 | 5.48 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.79 | 6.42 |
| Rushing yards per game | 147.5 | 113.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 273.6 | 243.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 153.1 | 187.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 212.8 | 245.9 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.92 | 1.42 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.31 | 0.75 |
| Sacks per game | 2.08 | 1.92 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.77 | 1.75 |
| Stat | South Carolina State | Furman |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02 | -0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.05 | +0.04 |
| Success rate | 43.3% | 40.8% |
| Success rate allowed | 38.5% | 44.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2% | 11.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.1% | 13.4% |
| Havoc rate | 15.5% | 10.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.6% | 14.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.70 | 3.61 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.43 | 3.98 |
| Average starting field position | opp 11 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.3 | 65.3 |
| Stat | South Carolina State | Furman |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04 | -0.12 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.08 | -0.03 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.06 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05 | +0.03 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.3% | 38.7% |
| Passing success rate | 43.3% | 43.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.7% | 18.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.1% | 29.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.5% | 33.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.0% | 40.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.8% | 41.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 58.7% | 56.2% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 46.8% | 56.3% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: South Carolina State schedule · Furman schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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