Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected South Carolina State 41.1, Bethune-Cookman 23.5 at Daytona Stadium in Week 4. That is a heavy edge: South Carolina State wins about 87% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 17.5 points and 64.6 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, leans high scoring.
South Carolina State is 4-0, scoring 51 and allowing 7.5 points per game (+43.5 per game). Bethune-Cookman is 2-1, scoring 37 and allowing 31.3 points per game (+5.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between South Carolina State by 40 and Bethune-Cookman by 5 about 80% of the time.
Bethune-Cookman gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. South Carolina State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Result: South Carolina State 31, Bethune-Cookman 21. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 7.5 points and the total by 12.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (South Carolina State / Bethune-Cookman) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | South Carolina State -13.5 → South Carolina State -17.5 | 58.5 | -1040 / +600 |
| DraftKings | South Carolina State -13.5 → South Carolina State -17.5 | 58.5 | -1040 / +600 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Bethune-Cookman win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | South Carolina State -17.5 | 64.6 | 13% |
| Market consensus | South Carolina State -17.5 | 58.5 | 14% |
| Blended projection | South Carolina State -17.5 | 59.0 | 12% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Bethune-Cookman win probability
- model 13% · market (no-vig) 14% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model South Carolina State -17.5 · market South Carolina State -17.5 · difference 0.0 pts (Bethune-Cookman view)
- Total
- model 64.6 · market 58.5 · difference +6.1
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | South Carolina State 41.1, Bethune-Cookman 23.5 | South Carolina State 87%right winner | 7.5 | 12.6 |
| New formula | South Carolina State 40.7, Bethune-Cookman 22.1 | South Carolina State 89%right winner | 8.6 | 10.8 |
Final: South Carolina State 31, Bethune-Cookman 21. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
South Carolina State vs Bethune-Cookman: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | South Carolina State | Bethune-Cookman |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.4 | 29.7 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.2 | 32.7 |
| Yards per play | 5.91 | 6.34 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.79 | 6.74 |
| Rushing yards per game | 147.5 | 174.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 273.6 | 235.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 153.1 | 209.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 212.8 | 261.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.92 | 1.40 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.31 | 0.90 |
| Sacks per game | 2.08 | 1.70 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.77 | 2.00 |
| Stat | South Carolina State | Bethune-Cookman |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02 | +0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.05 | +0.17 |
| Success rate | 43.3% | 42.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 38.5% | 48.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2% | 13.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.1% | 14.7% |
| Havoc rate | 15.5% | 12.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.6% | 13.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.70 | 2.73 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.43 | 4.48 |
| Average starting field position | opp 11 | opp 13 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | opp 12 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.3 | 64.6 |
| Stat | South Carolina State | Bethune-Cookman |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.08 | +0.10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.06 | +0.21 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05 | +0.14 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.3% | 43.1% |
| Passing success rate | 43.3% | 45.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.7% | 18.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.1% | 29.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.5% | 32.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.0% | 37.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.8% | 48.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 58.7% | 30.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 46.8% | 69.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: South Carolina State schedule · Bethune-Cookman schedule · all Week 4 projections
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