Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected South Carolina State 29.8, Charleston Southern 18.5 at Buccaneer Field in Week 6. That is a solid edge: South Carolina State wins about 77% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.3 points and 48.2 combined points.
South Carolina State is 5-1, scoring 44.3 and allowing 14.2 points per game (+30.1 per game). Charleston Southern is 2-3, scoring 23.6 and allowing 16.6 points per game (+7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between South Carolina State by 34 and Charleston Southern by 11 about 80% of the time.
Charleston Southern gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. South Carolina State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: South Carolina State 39, Charleston Southern 49. Charleston Southern won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 21.3 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (South Carolina State / Charleston Southern) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | South Carolina State -6.5 | 41.5 → 37.5 | -259 / +201 |
| DraftKings | South Carolina State -6.5 | 41.5 → 37.5 | -259 / +201 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Charleston Southern win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | South Carolina State -11.5 | 48.2 | 23% |
| Market consensus | South Carolina State -6.5 | 37.5 | 32% |
| Blended projection | South Carolina State -7.5 | 39.9 | 31% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Charleston Southern win probability
- model 23% · market (no-vig) 32% · difference -9 pts
- Margin
- model South Carolina State -11.3 · market South Carolina State -6.5 · difference -4.8 pts (Charleston Southern view)
- Total
- model 48.2 · market 37.5 · difference +10.7
Model margin is 4.8 pts more toward South Carolina State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | South Carolina State 29.8, Charleston Southern 18.5 | South Carolina State 77%wrong winner | 21.3 | 39.8 |
| New formula | South Carolina State 32.8, Charleston Southern 16.0 | South Carolina State 86%wrong winner | 26.8 | 39.2 |
Final: South Carolina State 39, Charleston Southern 49. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
South Carolina State vs Charleston Southern: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | South Carolina State | Charleston Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.4 | 16.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.2 | 24.0 |
| Yards per play | 5.91 | 5.44 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.79 | 5.98 |
| Rushing yards per game | 147.5 | 130.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 273.6 | 179.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 153.1 | 181.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 212.8 | 229.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.92 | 0.83 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.31 | 1.08 |
| Sacks per game | 2.08 | 1.50 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.77 | 2.17 |
| Stat | South Carolina State | Charleston Southern |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02 | -0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.05 | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 43.3% | 35.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 38.5% | 45.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2% | 12.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.1% | 14.2% |
| Havoc rate | 15.5% | 11.2% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.6% | 14.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.70 | 2.89 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.43 | 3.13 |
| Average starting field position | opp 11 | opp 12 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | opp 10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.3 | 57.2 |
| Stat | South Carolina State | Charleston Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04 | -0.07 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.08 | -0.05 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.06 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05 | +0.12 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.3% | 33.7% |
| Passing success rate | 43.3% | 37.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.7% | 23.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.1% | 25.0% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.5% | 33.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.0% | 33.3% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.8% | 46.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 58.7% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 46.8% | 45.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: South Carolina State schedule · Charleston Southern schedule · all Week 6 projections
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