Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Lehigh 29.6, Georgetown 17.7 at Cooper Field in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Lehigh wins about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.9 points and 47.3 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Lehigh is 1-0, scoring 35 and allowing 10 points per game (+25 per game). Georgetown has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Lehigh by 34 and Georgetown by 11 about 80% of the time.
Georgetown gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Lehigh is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Lehigh 45, Georgetown 14. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 19.1 points and the total by 11.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Lehigh / Georgetown) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Lehigh -20.5 → Lehigh -22.5 | 49.5 → 46.5 | -1920 / +870 |
| DraftKings | Lehigh -20.5 → Lehigh -22.5 | 49.5 → 46.5 | -1920 / +870 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Georgetown win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Lehigh -12 | 47.3 | 22% |
| Market consensus | Lehigh -22.5 | 46.5 | 10% |
| Blended projection | Lehigh -21 | 47.6 | 8% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Georgetown win probability
- model 22% · market (no-vig) 10% · difference +12 pts
- Margin
- model Lehigh -11.9 · market Lehigh -22.5 · difference +10.6 pts (Georgetown view)
- Total
- model 47.3 · market 46.5 · difference +0.8
Model margin is 10.6 pts more toward Georgetown than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Lehigh 29.6, Georgetown 17.7 | Lehigh 78%right winner | 19.1 | 11.7 |
| New formula | Lehigh 32.2, Georgetown 18.0 | Lehigh 80%right winner | 16.8 | 8.7 |
Final: Lehigh 45, Georgetown 14. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Lehigh vs Georgetown: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Lehigh | Georgetown |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.8 | 21.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 13.9 | 26.7 |
| Yards per play | 6.78 | 5.10 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.85 | 5.73 |
| Rushing yards per game | 222.7 | 179.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 194.8 | 182.1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 89.8 | 176.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 206.0 | 218.7 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.42 | 0.92 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25 | 1.08 |
| Sacks per game | 3.42 | 2.17 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.67 | 3.50 |
| Stat | Lehigh | Georgetown |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.10 | -0.10 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06 | +0.10 |
| Success rate | 45.6% | 34.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 38.0% | 42.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 16.0% | 11.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.4% | 11.8% |
| Havoc rate | 14.5% | 10.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 10.0% | 14.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.66 | 2.87 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.24 | 3.08 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.6 | 70.9 |
| Stat | Lehigh | Georgetown |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.13 | -0.16 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.09 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04 | +0.16 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.4% | 38.8% |
| Passing success rate | 46.1% | 35.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.2% | 23.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.6% | 26.0% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.9% | 31.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.0% | 41.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.3% | 38.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 45.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 35.9% | 51.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Lehigh schedule · Georgetown schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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