Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Jackson State 32.9, Alabama A&M 23.9 on a neutral field at Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Week 5. That is a solid edge: Jackson State wins about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9 points and 56.7 combined points.
Alabama A&M is 4-1, scoring 35.4 and allowing 16.2 points per game (+19.2 per game). Jackson State is 4-0, scoring 42 and allowing 15.5 points per game (+26.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Alabama A&M by 14 and Jackson State by 32 about 80% of the time.
Result: Alabama A&M 28, Jackson State 31. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6 points and the total by 2.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Alabama A&M / Jackson State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Jackson State -9.5 → Jackson State -10 | 49.5 → 54.5 | +268 / -358 |
| DraftKings | Jackson State -9.5 → Jackson State -10 | 49.5 → 54.5 | +268 / -358 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Jackson State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Jackson State -9 | 56.7 | 72% |
| Market consensus | Jackson State -10 | 54.5 | 74% |
| Blended projection | Jackson State -10 | 55.1 | 75% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Jackson State win probability
- model 72% · market (no-vig) 74% · difference -2 pts
- Margin
- model Jackson State -9 · market Jackson State -10 · difference -1.0 pts (Jackson State view)
- Total
- model 56.7 · market 54.5 · difference +2.2
Model margin is 1.0 pts more toward Alabama A&M than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Alabama A&M 23.9, Jackson State 32.9 | Jackson State 72%right winner | 6.0 | 2.3 |
| New formula | Alabama A&M 24.2, Jackson State 32.0 | Jackson State 70%right winner | 4.8 | 2.7 |
Final: Alabama A&M 28, Jackson State 31. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Alabama A&M vs Jackson State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Alabama A&M | Jackson State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.4 | 32.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.4 | 18.8 |
| Yards per play | 5.38 | 7.10 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.65 | 5.89 |
| Rushing yards per game | 125.5 | 260.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 222.9 | 211.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 201.5 | 129.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 221.6 | 223.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.18 | 0.75 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.91 | 0.83 |
| Sacks per game | 1.36 | 1.42 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.27 | 1.08 |
| Stat | Alabama A&M | Jackson State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.07 | +0.14 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11 | +0.00 |
| Success rate | 38.4% | 44.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.5% | 41.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.8% | 13.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.6% | 11.8% |
| Havoc rate | 11.3% | 12.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.2% | 11.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.09 | 3.71 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.47 | 2.64 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 6 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.7 | 66.5 |
| Stat | Alabama A&M | Jackson State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.11 | +0.15 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.02 | +0.13 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.18 | +0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.6% | 50.8% |
| Passing success rate | 40.0% | 43.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.2% | 17.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.8% | 31.0% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.3% | 30.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.6% | 50.6% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.8% | 35.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 56.1% | 63.3% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.3% | 64.3% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Alabama A&M schedule · Jackson State schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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