Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Alabama A&M 33.3, Bethune-Cookman 25.3 at Louis Crews Stadium in Week 6. That is a solid edge: Alabama A&M wins about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8 points and 58.6 combined points.
Bethune-Cookman is 3-2, scoring 29.6 and allowing 27 points per game (+2.6 per game). Alabama A&M is 4-2, scoring 34.2 and allowing 18.7 points per game (+15.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bethune-Cookman by 15 and Alabama A&M by 31 about 80% of the time.
Alabama A&M gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Alabama A&M by about 5.9.
Result: Bethune-Cookman 17, Alabama A&M 55. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 30 points and the total by 13.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Bethune-Cookman / Alabama A&M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Alabama A&M -3 → Alabama A&M -4 | 52.5 → 48.5 | +151 / -189 |
| DraftKings | Alabama A&M -3 → Alabama A&M -4 | 52.5 → 48.5 | +151 / -189 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Alabama A&M win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Alabama A&M -8 | 58.6 | 70% |
| Market consensus | Alabama A&M -4 | 48.5 | 62% |
| Blended projection | Alabama A&M -4.5 | 50.0 | 62% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Alabama A&M win probability
- model 70% · market (no-vig) 62% · difference +8 pts
- Margin
- model Alabama A&M -8 · market Alabama A&M -4 · difference +4.0 pts (Alabama A&M view)
- Total
- model 58.6 · market 48.5 · difference +10.1
Model margin is 4.0 pts more toward Alabama A&M than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Bethune-Cookman 25.3, Alabama A&M 33.3 | Alabama A&M 70%right winner | 30.0 | 13.4 |
| New formula | Bethune-Cookman 25.2, Alabama A&M 32.6 | Alabama A&M 69%right winner | 30.7 | 14.2 |
Final: Bethune-Cookman 17, Alabama A&M 55. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Bethune-Cookman vs Alabama A&M: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Bethune-Cookman | Alabama A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.7 | 23.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 32.7 | 33.4 |
| Yards per play | 6.34 | 5.38 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.74 | 6.65 |
| Rushing yards per game | 174.1 | 125.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 235.3 | 222.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 209.3 | 201.5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 261.4 | 221.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.40 | 1.18 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.90 | 0.91 |
| Sacks per game | 1.70 | 1.36 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00 | 2.27 |
| Stat | Bethune-Cookman | Alabama A&M |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03 | -0.07 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.17 | +0.11 |
| Success rate | 42.1% | 38.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 48.6% | 44.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.0% | 10.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.7% | 15.6% |
| Havoc rate | 12.3% | 11.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.5% | 15.2% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.73 | 3.09 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.48 | 4.47 |
| Average starting field position | opp 13 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 12 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.6 | 64.7 |
| Stat | Bethune-Cookman | Alabama A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.11 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.10 | -0.02 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.21 | +0.05 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.14 | +0.18 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.1% | 42.6% |
| Passing success rate | 45.0% | 40.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.2% | 20.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.3% | 27.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.4% | 32.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.2% | 36.6% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 48.1% | 41.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 30.8% | 56.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 69.9% | 68.3% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Bethune-Cookman schedule · Alabama A&M schedule · all Week 6 projections
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