Matchup analysis
Our model projects Alabama A&M 31, Prairie View A&M 25 at Panther Stadium in Week 10. That is a lean: Alabama A&M wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.6 points and 55.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Alabama A&M is 6-2 against the 152nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 40.1 and allowing 20 points per game (+20.1 per game). Prairie View A&M is 4-5 against the 67th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25.3 and allowing 29.4 points per game (-4.1 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Alabama A&M by 28 and Prairie View A&M by 17 about 80% of the time.
Prairie View A&M gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Alabama A&M is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Alabama A&M vs Prairie View A&M: stat comparison
| Stat | Alabama A&M | Prairie View A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 40.1 | 25.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.0 | 29.4 |
| Yards per play | 7.54 | 5.48 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.34 | 6.10 |
| Rushing yards per game | 203.0 | 164.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 285.5 | 186.7 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 138.9 | 178.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 145.6 | 249.9 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.88 | 0.78 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.13 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 2.63 | 1.67 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.75 | 2.44 |
| Stat | Alabama A&M | Prairie View A&M |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13 | -0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01 | +0.05 |
| Success rate | 44.4% | 38.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 37.6% | 41.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 15.5% | 12.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.7% | 12.0% |
| Havoc rate | 15.7% | 14.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.4% | 16.2% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.72 | 3.73 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.62 | 3.58 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 8 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.8 | 64.0 |
| Stat | Alabama A&M | Prairie View A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.15 | -0.09 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06 | +0.05 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04 | +0.05 |
| Rushing success rate | 51.2% | 38.7% |
| Passing success rate | 46.6% | 35.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.0% | 23.0% |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.2% | 29.0% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.6% | 31.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.0% | 36.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 29.8% | 43.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 52.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 48.2% | 48.8% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Alabama A&M schedule · Prairie View A&M schedule · all Week 10 projections
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