Matchup analysis
Our model projects Alabama A&M 41, Mississippi Valley State 18 at Rice-Totten Stadium in Week 12. That is a heavy edge: Alabama A&M wins about 94% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 23.1 points and 58.4 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Alabama A&M is 6-2 against the 152nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 40.1 and allowing 20 points per game (+20.1 per game). Mississippi Valley State is 3-5 against the 156th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 17.8 and allowing 34.1 points per game (-16.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Alabama A&M by 46 and Alabama A&M by 1 about 80% of the time.
Mississippi Valley State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Alabama A&M is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Alabama A&M vs Mississippi Valley State: stat comparison
| Stat | Alabama A&M | Mississippi Valley State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 40.1 | 17.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.0 | 34.1 |
| Yards per play | 7.54 | 5.02 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.34 | 5.35 |
| Rushing yards per game | 203.0 | 145.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 285.5 | 147.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 138.9 | 165.0 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 145.6 | 189.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.88 | 1.63 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.13 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 2.63 | 2.25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.75 | 2.88 |
| Stat | Alabama A&M | Mississippi Valley State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13 | -0.08 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01 | +0.02 |
| Success rate | 44.4% | 33.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 37.6% | 39.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 15.5% | 10.9% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.7% | 13.0% |
| Havoc rate | 15.7% | 15.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.4% | 17.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.72 | 2.66 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.62 | 4.59 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.8 | 58.4 |
| Stat | Alabama A&M | Mississippi Valley State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.15 | -0.14 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04 | -0.00 |
| Rushing success rate | 51.2% | 35.8% |
| Passing success rate | 46.6% | 28.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.0% | 23.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.2% | 23.7% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.6% | 31.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.0% | 35.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 29.8% | 33.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 48.2% | 72.3% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Alabama A&M schedule · Mississippi Valley State schedule · all Week 12 projections
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