Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Grambling 31.9, Alcorn State 28.1 at Eddie G. Robinson Memorial Stadium in Week 5. That is a lean: Grambling wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.8 points and 59.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Alcorn State is 3-2, scoring 35 and allowing 37 points per game (-2 per game). Grambling is 2-2, scoring 29.5 and allowing 29.3 points per game (+0.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Alcorn State by 19 and Grambling by 26 about 80% of the time.
Grambling gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Grambling by about 1.7.
Result: Alcorn State 59, Grambling 63. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.2 points and the total by 62.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Alcorn State / Grambling) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Grambling -7.5 → Grambling -6 | 57.5 → 55.5 | +183 / -234 |
| DraftKings | Grambling -7.5 → Grambling -6 | 57.5 → 55.5 | +183 / -234 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Grambling win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Grambling -4 | 59.9 | 60% |
| Market consensus | Grambling -6 | 55.5 | 66% |
| Blended projection | Grambling -5.5 | 56.1 | 65% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Grambling win probability
- model 60% · market (no-vig) 66% · difference -7 pts
- Margin
- model Grambling -3.8 · market Grambling -6 · difference -2.2 pts (Grambling view)
- Total
- model 59.9 · market 55.5 · difference +4.4
Model margin is 2.2 pts more toward Alcorn State than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Alcorn State 28.1, Grambling 31.9 | Grambling 60%right winner | 0.2 | 62.1 |
| New formula | Alcorn State 28.0, Grambling 31.6 | Grambling 59%right winner | 0.4 | 62.4 |
Final: Alcorn State 59, Grambling 63. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Alcorn State vs Grambling: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Alcorn State | Grambling |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.3 | 24.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.2 | 26.1 |
| Yards per play | 5.63 | 4.91 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.26 | 5.66 |
| Rushing yards per game | 183.8 | 156.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 171.2 | 155.1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 139.1 | 162.7 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 202.2 | 190.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.91 | 1.42 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.91 | 1.42 |
| Sacks per game | 1.55 | 2.83 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.27 | 1.50 |
| Stat | Alcorn State | Grambling |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.08 | -0.12 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03 | -0.03 |
| Success rate | 41.2% | 35.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.4% | 41.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.1% | 11.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.7% | 13.7% |
| Havoc rate | 13.4% | 15.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.3% | 14.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.37 | 3.44 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.91 | 4.03 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.1 | 63.5 |
| Stat | Alcorn State | Grambling |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.12 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.11 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.00 | -0.07 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.9% | 37.1% |
| Passing success rate | 40.3% | 35.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.8% | 23.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.5% | 25.7% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.5% | 27.8% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.0% | 35.5% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.8% | 34.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 50.6% | 52.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.6% | 65.8% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Alcorn State schedule · Grambling schedule · all Week 5 projections
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