Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Prairie View A&M 30.2, Alcorn State 28.6 at Panther Stadium in Week 7. That is a genuine toss-up: Prairie View A&M wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.6 points and 58.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Alcorn State is 4-3, scoring 42.4 and allowing 36.4 points per game (+6 per game). Prairie View A&M is 2-5, scoring 22.4 and allowing 29.7 points per game (-7.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Alcorn State by 21 and Prairie View A&M by 24 about 80% of the time.
Prairie View A&M gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Alcorn State would be favoured by 0.5.
Result: Alcorn State 38, Prairie View A&M 41. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.4 points and the total by 20.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Alcorn State / Prairie View A&M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Prairie View A&M -5.5 → Prairie View A&M -6.5 | 56.5 → 57.5 | +230 / -300 |
| DraftKings | Prairie View A&M -5.5 → Prairie View A&M -6.5 | 56.5 → 57.5 | +230 / -300 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Prairie View A&M win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Prairie View A&M -1.5 | 58.7 | 54% |
| Market consensus | Prairie View A&M -6.5 | 57.5 | 71% |
| Blended projection | Prairie View A&M -5.5 | 57.8 | 65% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Prairie View A&M win probability
- model 54% · market (no-vig) 71% · difference -17 pts
- Margin
- model Prairie View A&M -1.6 · market Prairie View A&M -6.5 · difference -4.9 pts (Prairie View A&M view)
- Total
- model 58.7 · market 57.5 · difference +1.2
Model margin is 4.9 pts more toward Alcorn State than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Alcorn State 28.6, Prairie View A&M 30.2 | Prairie View A&M 54%right winner | 1.4 | 20.3 |
| New formula | Alcorn State 27.9, Prairie View A&M 30.2 | Prairie View A&M 56%right winner | 0.7 | 20.9 |
Final: Alcorn State 38, Prairie View A&M 41. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Alcorn State vs Prairie View A&M: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Alcorn State | Prairie View A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.3 | 31.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.2 | 17.9 |
| Yards per play | 5.63 | 6.95 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.26 | 4.75 |
| Rushing yards per game | 183.8 | 190.2 |
| Net passing yards per game | 171.2 | 251.1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 139.1 | 141.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 202.2 | 131.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.91 | 1.08 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.91 | 0.77 |
| Sacks per game | 1.55 | 1.54 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.27 | 0.62 |
| Stat | Alcorn State | Prairie View A&M |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.08 | +0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03 | +0.03 |
| Success rate | 41.2% | 40.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.4% | 40.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.1% | 15.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.7% | 9.7% |
| Havoc rate | 13.4% | 13.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.3% | 11.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.37 | 3.78 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.91 | 3.12 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.1 | 63.5 |
| Stat | Alcorn State | Prairie View A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.10 | +0.11 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.9% | 43.4% |
| Passing success rate | 40.3% | 42.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.8% | 18.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.5% | 30.7% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.5% | 29.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.0% | 42.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.8% | 32.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 50.6% | 56.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.6% | 48.2% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Alcorn State schedule · Prairie View A&M schedule · all Week 7 projections
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