Matchup analysis
Our model projects Alcorn State 39, Mississippi Valley State 24 at Rice-Totten Stadium in Week 9. That is a solid edge: Alcorn State wins about 84% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 15.2 points and 62.5 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Alcorn State is 4-4 against the 164th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 41.9 and allowing 37 points per game (+4.9 per game). Mississippi Valley State is 3-5 against the 156th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 17.8 and allowing 34.1 points per game (-16.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Alcorn State by 38 and Mississippi Valley State by 7 about 80% of the time.
Mississippi Valley State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Alcorn State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Alcorn State vs Mississippi Valley State: stat comparison
| Stat | Alcorn State | Mississippi Valley State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 41.9 | 17.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 37.0 | 34.1 |
| Yards per play | 6.84 | 5.02 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.33 | 5.35 |
| Rushing yards per game | 180.0 | 145.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 316.3 | 147.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 201.5 | 165.0 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 219.1 | 189.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.38 | 1.63 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 1.63 | 2.25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.38 | 2.88 |
| Stat | Alcorn State | Mississippi Valley State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.14 | -0.08 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.17 | +0.02 |
| Success rate | 43.5% | 33.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.5% | 39.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 14.7% | 10.9% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.6% | 13.0% |
| Havoc rate | 13.5% | 15.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.0% | 17.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.38 | 2.66 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.71 | 4.59 |
| Average starting field position | opp 9 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 8 | opp 8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 72.5 | 58.4 |
| Stat | Alcorn State | Mississippi Valley State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.20 | -0.14 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.14 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.18 | -0.00 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.0% | 35.8% |
| Passing success rate | 44.8% | 28.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.4% | 23.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.7% | 23.7% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 36.8% | 31.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.3% | 35.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.8% | 33.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 45.1% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.7% | 72.3% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Alcorn State schedule · Mississippi Valley State schedule · all Week 9 projections
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