Matchup analysis
Our model projects Jackson State 35, Alcorn State 28 at Spinks-Casem Stadium in Week 12. That is a lean: Jackson State wins about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7 points and 62.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
Jackson State is 6-2 against the 163rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.6 and allowing 22 points per game (+13.6 per game). Alcorn State is 4-4 against the 164th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 41.9 and allowing 37 points per game (+4.9 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jackson State by 30 and Alcorn State by 16 about 80% of the time.
Alcorn State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Jackson State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Jackson State vs Alcorn State: stat comparison
| Stat | Jackson State | Alcorn State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.6 | 41.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.0 | 37.0 |
| Yards per play | 6.58 | 6.84 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.18 | 6.33 |
| Rushing yards per game | 209.5 | 180.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 235.6 | 316.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 139.8 | 201.5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 187.5 | 219.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.63 | 1.38 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.63 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 2.13 | 1.63 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50 | 1.38 |
| Stat | Jackson State | Alcorn State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13 | +0.14 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.17 |
| Success rate | 41.3% | 43.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.2% | 44.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.8% | 14.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.0% | 13.6% |
| Havoc rate | 13.5% | 13.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.3% | 14.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.38 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 4.71 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.6 | 72.5 |
| Stat | Jackson State | Alcorn State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07 | +0.07 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.18 | +0.20 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.14 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.14 | +0.18 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.7% | 48.0% |
| Passing success rate | 40.3% | 44.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.6% | 20.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.8% | 34.7% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.5% | 36.8% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.7% | 47.3% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.5% | 39.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 45.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 68.7% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Jackson State schedule · Alcorn State schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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