Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Tennessee Tech 33.1, Furman 16.8 at Tucker Stadium in Week 6. That is a heavy edge: Tennessee Tech wins about 86% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 16.3 points and 49.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Furman is 2-4, scoring 16.7 and allowing 22.8 points per game (-6.1 per game). Tennessee Tech is 4-1, scoring 33.8 and allowing 24.8 points per game (+9 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Furman by 6 and Tennessee Tech by 39 about 80% of the time.
Tennessee Tech gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Tennessee Tech by about 14.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Furman 15, Tennessee Tech 20. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 11.3 points and the total by 14.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Furman / Tennessee Tech) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Tennessee Tech -13.5 | 45.5 → 44.5 | +397 / -573 |
| DraftKings | Tennessee Tech -13.5 | 45.5 → 44.5 | +397 / -573 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Tennessee Tech win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Tennessee Tech -16.5 | 49.9 | 86% |
| Market consensus | Tennessee Tech -13.5 | 44.5 | 81% |
| Blended projection | Tennessee Tech -14 | 46.0 | 83% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Tennessee Tech win probability
- model 86% · market (no-vig) 81% · difference +5 pts
- Margin
- model Tennessee Tech -16.3 · market Tennessee Tech -13.5 · difference +2.8 pts (Tennessee Tech view)
- Total
- model 49.9 · market 44.5 · difference +5.4
Model margin is 2.8 pts more toward Tennessee Tech than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Furman 16.8, Tennessee Tech 33.1 | Tennessee Tech 86%right winner | 11.3 | 14.9 |
| New formula | Furman 17.7, Tennessee Tech 32.7 | Tennessee Tech 84%right winner | 10.0 | 15.4 |
Final: Furman 15, Tennessee Tech 20. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Furman vs Tennessee Tech: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Furman | Tennessee Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.4 | 37.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.0 | 18.7 |
| Yards per play | 5.48 | 6.79 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.42 | 4.71 |
| Rushing yards per game | 113.8 | 196.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 243.9 | 232.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 187.8 | 116.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 245.9 | 207.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.42 | 1.25 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 | 1.17 |
| Sacks per game | 1.92 | 3.42 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.75 | 2.00 |
| Stat | Furman | Tennessee Tech |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04 | -0.03 |
| Success rate | 40.8% | 43.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.7% | 40.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.0% | 13.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.4% | 12.4% |
| Havoc rate | 10.9% | 14.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.0% | 14.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.61 | 2.85 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.98 | 4.14 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 6 | opp 4 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.3 | 63.2 |
| Stat | Furman | Tennessee Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.12 | +0.12 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.03 | +0.01 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | -0.07 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.7% | 45.9% |
| Passing success rate | 43.2% | 45.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.7% | 18.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.9% | 29.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.1% | 30.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.0% | 43.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.8% | 32.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 56.2% | 45.2% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 56.3% | 62.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Furman schedule · Tennessee Tech schedule · all Week 6 projections
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