Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Bethune-Cookman 33.7, Mississippi Valley State 23.5 at Rice-Totten Stadium in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Bethune-Cookman wins about 75% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.2 points and 57.1 combined points.
Bethune-Cookman is 3-3, scoring 27.5 and allowing 31.7 points per game (-4.2 per game). Mississippi Valley State is 3-4, scoring 18.3 and allowing 34.1 points per game (-15.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bethune-Cookman by 33 and Mississippi Valley State by 12 about 80% of the time.
Mississippi Valley State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Bethune-Cookman is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Result: Bethune-Cookman 34, Mississippi Valley State 14. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 9.8 points and the total by 9.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Bethune-Cookman / Mississippi Valley State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Bethune-Cookman -7.5 → Bethune-Cookman -6.5 | 57.5 → 50.5 | -252 / +196 |
| DraftKings | Bethune-Cookman -7.5 → Bethune-Cookman -6.5 | 57.5 → 50.5 | -252 / +196 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Mississippi Valley State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Bethune-Cookman -10 | 57.1 | 25% |
| Market consensus | Bethune-Cookman -6.5 | 50.5 | 32% |
| Blended projection | Bethune-Cookman -7 | 51.6 | 31% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Mississippi Valley State win probability
- model 25% · market (no-vig) 32% · difference -7 pts
- Margin
- model Bethune-Cookman -10.2 · market Bethune-Cookman -6.5 · difference -3.7 pts (Mississippi Valley State view)
- Total
- model 57.1 · market 50.5 · difference +6.6
Model margin is 3.7 pts more toward Bethune-Cookman than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Bethune-Cookman 33.7, Mississippi Valley State 23.5 | Bethune-Cookman 75%right winner | 9.8 | 9.1 |
| New formula | Bethune-Cookman 33.2, Mississippi Valley State 23.5 | Bethune-Cookman 74%right winner | 10.3 | 8.7 |
Final: Bethune-Cookman 34, Mississippi Valley State 14. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Bethune-Cookman vs Mississippi Valley State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Bethune-Cookman | Mississippi Valley State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.7 | 18.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 32.7 | 38.7 |
| Yards per play | 6.34 | 4.73 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.74 | 6.46 |
| Rushing yards per game | 174.1 | 94.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 235.3 | 214.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 209.3 | 195.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 261.4 | 238.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.40 | 1.70 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| Sacks per game | 1.70 | 0.90 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| Stat | Bethune-Cookman | Mississippi Valley State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03 | -0.21 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.17 | +0.07 |
| Success rate | 42.1% | 33.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 48.6% | 49.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.0% | 10.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.7% | 13.0% |
| Havoc rate | 12.3% | 11.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.5% | 20.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.73 | 2.31 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.48 | 3.66 |
| Average starting field position | opp 13 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 12 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.6 | 65.3 |
| Stat | Bethune-Cookman | Mississippi Valley State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.24 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.10 | -0.19 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.21 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.14 | +0.15 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.1% | 34.2% |
| Passing success rate | 45.0% | 32.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.2% | 27.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.3% | 25.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.4% | 38.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.2% | 28.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 48.1% | 43.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 30.8% | 49.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 69.9% | 57.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Bethune-Cookman schedule · Mississippi Valley State schedule · all Week 7 projections
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