Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Jackson State 33.3, Bethune-Cookman 22.9 at Daytona Stadium in Week 8. That is a solid edge: Jackson State wins about 75% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.4 points and 56.1 combined points.
Jackson State is 6-1, scoring 37.7 and allowing 21.7 points per game (+16 per game). Bethune-Cookman is 4-3, scoring 28.4 and allowing 29.1 points per game (-0.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jackson State by 33 and Bethune-Cookman by 12 about 80% of the time.
Bethune-Cookman gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Jackson State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Result: Jackson State 21, Bethune-Cookman 24. Bethune-Cookman won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 13.4 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Jackson State 33.3, Bethune-Cookman 22.9 | Jackson State 75%wrong winner | 13.4 | 11.1 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Jackson State 21, Bethune-Cookman 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Jackson State vs Bethune-Cookman: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Jackson State | Bethune-Cookman |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.8 | 29.7 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.8 | 32.7 |
| Yards per play | 7.10 | 6.34 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.89 | 6.74 |
| Rushing yards per game | 260.3 | 174.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 211.8 | 235.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 129.9 | 209.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 223.5 | 261.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75 | 1.40 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.83 | 0.90 |
| Sacks per game | 1.42 | 1.70 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.08 | 2.00 |
| Stat | Jackson State | Bethune-Cookman |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.14 | +0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.00 | +0.17 |
| Success rate | 44.1% | 42.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.0% | 48.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.8% | 13.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.8% | 14.7% |
| Havoc rate | 12.4% | 12.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.6% | 13.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.71 | 2.73 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.64 | 4.48 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 13 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 12 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.5 | 64.6 |
| Stat | Jackson State | Bethune-Cookman |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.15 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.13 | +0.10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.21 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01 | +0.14 |
| Rushing success rate | 50.8% | 43.1% |
| Passing success rate | 43.5% | 45.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.6% | 18.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.0% | 29.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.0% | 32.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.6% | 37.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.2% | 48.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 63.3% | 30.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 64.3% | 69.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Jackson State schedule · Bethune-Cookman schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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