Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bethune-Cookman 33, Grambling 30 at Daytona Stadium in Week 11. That is a genuine toss-up: Bethune-Cookman wins about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.8 points and 62.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans high scoring.
Grambling is 4-3 against the 49th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 36.7 and allowing 39.3 points per game (-2.6 per game). Bethune-Cookman is 5-3 against the 113th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27.9 and allowing 28.1 points per game (-0.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Grambling by 20 and Bethune-Cookman by 25 about 80% of the time.
Bethune-Cookman gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Bethune-Cookman by about 0.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Grambling vs Bethune-Cookman: stat comparison
| Stat | Grambling | Bethune-Cookman |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.7 | 27.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 39.3 | 28.1 |
| Yards per play | 6.86 | 5.23 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.09 | 6.27 |
| Rushing yards per game | 183.9 | 234.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 242.6 | 105.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 195.1 | 206.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 263.6 | 170.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14 | 0.88 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.57 | 1.75 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 2.75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.57 | 1.88 |
| Stat | Grambling | Bethune-Cookman |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.16 | -0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.15 | -0.02 |
| Success rate | 42.0% | 39.0% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.5% | 41.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 14.7% | 12.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.1% | 14.0% |
| Havoc rate | 13.3% | 17.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.9% | 15.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.79 | 4.01 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.81 | 3.87 |
| Average starting field position | opp 12 | opp 11 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 9 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.1 | 65.0 |
| Stat | Grambling | Bethune-Cookman |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.11 | +0.06 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.21 | -0.15 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.14 | +0.17 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.18 | -0.20 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.9% | 41.7% |
| Passing success rate | 43.0% | 31.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.6% | 21.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 38.6% | 26.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.0% | 30.8% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.6% | 36.6% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.3% | 35.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 65.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 72.4% | 58.7% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Grambling schedule · Bethune-Cookman schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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