Matchup analysis
Our model projects Jackson State 41, Mississippi Valley State 13 at Mississippi Veterans Memorial Stadium in Week 10. That is a heavy edge: Jackson State wins about 97% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 28.9 points and 54 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Mississippi Valley State is 3-5 against the 156th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 17.8 and allowing 34.1 points per game (-16.3 per game). Jackson State is 6-2 against the 163rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.6 and allowing 22 points per game (+13.6 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jackson State by 6 and Jackson State by 51 about 80% of the time.
Jackson State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Jackson State by about 26.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Mississippi Valley State vs Jackson State: stat comparison
| Stat | Mississippi Valley State | Jackson State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.8 | 35.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 34.1 | 22.0 |
| Yards per play | 5.02 | 6.58 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.35 | 5.18 |
| Rushing yards per game | 145.8 | 209.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 147.3 | 235.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 165.0 | 139.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 189.0 | 187.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.63 | 0.63 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 0.63 |
| Sacks per game | 2.25 | 2.13 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.88 | 1.50 |
| Stat | Mississippi Valley State | Jackson State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.08 | +0.13 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.07 |
| Success rate | 33.2% | 41.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.6% | 41.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.9% | 12.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.0% | 11.0% |
| Havoc rate | 15.0% | 13.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 17.8% | 14.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.66 | 0.00 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.59 | 0.00 |
| Average starting field position | opp 9 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 8 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 58.4 | 67.6 |
| Stat | Mississippi Valley State | Jackson State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.07 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.14 | +0.18 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.00 | +0.14 |
| Rushing success rate | 35.8% | 43.7% |
| Passing success rate | 28.0% | 40.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 23.4% | 18.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.7% | 30.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.1% | 34.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.1% | 46.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.3% | 44.5% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 72.3% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Mississippi Valley State schedule · Jackson State schedule · all Week 10 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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