Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Prairie View A&M 35.4, Mississippi Valley State 15.2 at Rice-Totten Stadium in Week 5. That is a heavy edge: Prairie View A&M wins about 91% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 20.2 points and 50.6 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Prairie View A&M is 2-3, scoring 23.2 and allowing 30.4 points per game (-7.2 per game). Mississippi Valley State is 1-4, scoring 12.4 and allowing 35.6 points per game (-23.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Prairie View A&M by 43 and Mississippi Valley State by 2 about 80% of the time.
Mississippi Valley State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Prairie View A&M is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Result: Prairie View A&M 27, Mississippi Valley State 28. Mississippi Valley State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 21.2 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Prairie View A&M / Mississippi Valley State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Prairie View A&M -26.5 → Prairie View A&M -29.5 | 59.5 → 54.5 | -3200 / +1100 |
| DraftKings | Prairie View A&M -26.5 → Prairie View A&M -29.5 | 59.5 → 54.5 | -3200 / +1100 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Mississippi Valley State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Prairie View A&M -20 | 50.6 | 9% |
| Market consensus | Prairie View A&M -29.5 | 54.5 | 8% |
| Blended projection | Prairie View A&M -28 | 54.7 | 3% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Mississippi Valley State win probability
- model 9% · market (no-vig) 8% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Prairie View A&M -20.2 · market Prairie View A&M -29.5 · difference +9.3 pts (Mississippi Valley State view)
- Total
- model 50.6 · market 54.5 · difference -3.9
Model margin is 9.3 pts more toward Mississippi Valley State than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Prairie View A&M 35.4, Mississippi Valley State 15.2 | Prairie View A&M 91%wrong winner | 21.2 | 4.4 |
| New formula | Prairie View A&M 34.8, Mississippi Valley State 15.5 | Prairie View A&M 90%wrong winner | 20.3 | 4.6 |
Final: Prairie View A&M 27, Mississippi Valley State 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Prairie View A&M vs Mississippi Valley State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Prairie View A&M | Mississippi Valley State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.6 | 18.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 17.9 | 38.7 |
| Yards per play | 6.95 | 4.73 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.75 | 6.46 |
| Rushing yards per game | 190.2 | 94.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 251.1 | 214.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 141.2 | 195.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 131.6 | 238.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.08 | 1.70 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.77 | 0.80 |
| Sacks per game | 1.54 | 0.90 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.62 | 2.20 |
| Stat | Prairie View A&M | Mississippi Valley State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03 | -0.21 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03 | +0.07 |
| Success rate | 40.5% | 33.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.0% | 49.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 15.7% | 10.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.7% | 13.0% |
| Havoc rate | 13.5% | 11.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.3% | 20.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.78 | 2.31 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.12 | 3.66 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.5 | 65.3 |
| Stat | Prairie View A&M | Mississippi Valley State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.24 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.11 | -0.19 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.15 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.4% | 34.2% |
| Passing success rate | 42.1% | 32.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.3% | 27.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.7% | 25.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.7% | 38.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.0% | 28.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.1% | 43.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 56.9% | 49.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 48.2% | 57.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Prairie View A&M schedule · Mississippi Valley State schedule · all Week 5 projections
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