Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Louisiana Tech 28.3, Old Dominion 17 at Joe Aillet Stadium in Week 8. That is a solid edge: Louisiana Tech wins about 77% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.2 points and 45.3 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Old Dominion is 2-5, scoring 17.7 and allowing 26.9 points per game (-9.2 per game). Louisiana Tech is 4-2, scoring 33.3 and allowing 24.5 points per game (+8.8 per game).
Louisiana Tech's middle-of-the-pack defense (57th) should limit Old Dominion's struggling offense (130th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17.2 points against an average defense). Louisiana Tech's middle-of-the-pack offense (76th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense) meets Old Dominion's below-average defense (84th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Louisiana Tech puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Old Dominion by 11 and Louisiana Tech by 34 about 80% of the time.
Louisiana Tech gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Louisiana Tech by about 9.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Old Dominion 0, Louisiana Tech 26. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 14.8 points and the total by 19.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Old Dominion / Louisiana Tech) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Louisiana Tech -13.5 | 43.5 | +410 / -550 |
| Opening line | Louisiana Tech -8.5 | 44.5 | +260 / -325 |
| DraftKings | Louisiana Tech -13.5 | 43.5 | +410 / -550 |
| FanDuel | Louisiana Tech -12.5 | 43.5 | +400 / -550 |
| BetRivers | Louisiana Tech -13.5 | 43.5 | +410 / -590 |
| BetMGM | Louisiana Tech -13.5 | 43.5 | +425 / -550 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Louisiana Tech win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Louisiana Tech -11 | 45.3 | 77% |
| Market consensus | Louisiana Tech -13.5 | 43.5 | 80% |
| Blended projection | Louisiana Tech -13 | 44.9 | 82% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Louisiana Tech win probability
- model 77% · market (no-vig) 80% · difference -3 pts
- Margin
- model Louisiana Tech -11.2 · market Louisiana Tech -13.5 · difference -2.3 pts (Louisiana Tech view)
- Total
- model 45.3 · market 43.5 · difference +1.8
Model margin is 2.3 pts more toward Old Dominion than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Old Dominion 17.0, Louisiana Tech 28.3 | Louisiana Tech 77%right winner | 14.8 | 19.3 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Old Dominion 0, Louisiana Tech 26. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Old Dominion vs Louisiana Tech: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Old Dominion | Louisiana Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.0#29 | 27.3#71 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.5#14 | 20.8#35 |
| Yards per play | 6.95#13 | 5.66#85 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.94#11 | 5.87#74 |
| Rushing yards per game | 250.2#5 | 205.8#23 |
| Net passing yards per game | 220.5#79 | 163.7#118 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 160.7#67 | 145.5#40 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 181.6#20 | 258.2#125 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.15#90 | 1.15#89 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.46#21 | 1.77#6 |
| Sacks per game | 2.92#7 | 1.38#113 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.54#44 | 1.85#81 |
| Stat | Old Dominion | Louisiana Tech |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06#49 | -0.03#110 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.13#8 | -0.01#53 |
| Success rate | 46.2%#27 | 40.4%#99 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.0%#25 | 38.8%#33 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.2%#7 | 12.9%#56 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.1%#8 | 13.2%#98 |
| Havoc rate | 14.4%#21 | 13.3%#51 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.3%#48 | 11.9%#68 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.85#83 | 3.67#102 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.87#4 | 3.43#22 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#40 | own 30#70 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#79 | own 27#17 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.8#51 | 65.3#81 |
| Stat | Old Dominion | Louisiana Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.02#74 | +0.07#45 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.10#41 | -0.16#127 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.07#26 | -0.03#41 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.20#7 | +0.01#70 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.2%#32 | 42.1%#91 |
| Passing success rate | 43.8%#40 | 36.4%#113 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.2%#12 | 17.8%#60 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.7%#22 | 27.7%#96 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.8%#13 | 30.8%#85 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.6%#41 | 41.8%#58 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.4%#31 | 38.4%#49 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 53.8%#107 | 61.8%#65 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 49.9%#16 | 47.5%#9 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Old Dominion schedule · Louisiana Tech schedule · all Week 8 projections
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