New York Mets at Washington Nationals projection, 2026-09-26
The model gives the New York Mets a 50% chance of beating the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park, with a projected score of NYM 5.0, WSH 4.7 and about 9.6 total runs. There is a 28% chance the game is decided by one run.
Jonah Tong (RHP, NYM) projects to strike out 22.9% and put on 10.9% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.7 innings. Last season hitters managed a .342 xwOBA against him. Connelly Early (LHP, WSH) projects to strike out 25.4% and put on 10.1% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.3 innings. Last season hitters managed a .240 xwOBA against him.
NYM's bullpen has 80% of its usual relief work rested (160 weighted pitches over the last three days); Justin Hagenman is likely unavailable. WSH's bullpen has 84% of its usual relief work rested (91 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Nationals Park plays 7% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 67°F with 16 mph wind; Austin Jones has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for NYM the biggest factor is lineup quality (+7% to their expected runs) and for WSH the biggest factor is ballpark (+5% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | NYM 50% · WSH 50% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | NYM 5.0 – 4.7 WSH |
| Projected total runs | 9.6 |
| One-run game | 28% |
| NYM starter | Jonah Tong (RHP): projected 22.9% strikeouts, 10.9% walks + HBP, 4.7 innings |
| WSH starter | Connelly Early (LHP): projected 25.4% strikeouts, 10.1% walks + HBP, 5.3 innings |
| Ballpark | Nationals Park (run factor +6.7%) |
New York Mets · Washington Nationals · Jonah Tong · Connelly Early
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