New York Mets at Washington Nationals projection, 2026-09-25
The model gives the New York Mets a 54% chance of beating the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park, with a projected score of NYM 5.4, WSH 4.7 and about 10.1 total runs. There is a 27% chance the game is decided by one run.
Jefry Yan (LHP, NYM) projects to strike out 26.3% and put on 12.2% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.1 innings. Andrew Alvarez (LHP, WSH) projects to strike out 23.2% and put on 11.0% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.4 innings. Last season hitters managed a .265 xwOBA against him.
NYM's bullpen has 87% of its usual relief work rested (68 weighted pitches over the last three days). WSH's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (95 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Nationals Park plays 7% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 73°F with 5 mph wind; Sean Barber has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for NYM the biggest factor is lineup quality (+7% to their expected runs) and for WSH the biggest factor is ballpark (+5% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | NYM 54% · WSH 46% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | NYM 5.4 – 4.7 WSH |
| Projected total runs | 10.1 |
| One-run game | 27% |
| NYM starter | Jefry Yan (LHP): projected 26.3% strikeouts, 12.2% walks + HBP, 5.1 innings |
| WSH starter | Andrew Alvarez (LHP): projected 23.2% strikeouts, 11.0% walks + HBP, 5.4 innings |
| Ballpark | Nationals Park (run factor +6.6%) |
New York Mets · Washington Nationals · Jefry Yan · Andrew Alvarez
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