Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays projection, 2026-09-26

The model gives the Toronto Blue Jays a 61% chance of beating the Cincinnati Reds at Rogers Centre, with a projected score of CIN 4.2, TOR 5.0 and about 9.2 total runs. There is a 29% chance the game is decided by one run.

Rhett Lowder (RHP, CIN) projects to strike out 17.7% and put on 10.2% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.7 innings. Trey Yesavage (RHP, TOR) projects to strike out 25.7% and put on 11.6% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.5 innings. Last season hitters managed a .314 xwOBA against him.

CIN's bullpen has 78% of its usual relief work rested (115 weighted pitches over the last three days); Luis Mey is likely unavailable. TOR's bullpen has 74% of its usual relief work rested (114 weighted pitches over the last three days); Brendan Cellucci, Chad Dallas are likely unavailable.

Rogers Centre plays 0% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 71°F with 5 mph wind; Paul Clemons has the plate.

By the model's breakdown, for CIN the biggest factor is team run form (-2% to their expected runs) and for TOR the biggest factor is opposing starter (+7% to their expected runs).

Cincinnati Reds · Toronto Blue Jays · Rhett Lowder · Trey Yesavage

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