Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays projection, 2026-09-27
The model gives the Toronto Blue Jays a 61% chance of beating the Cincinnati Reds at Rogers Centre, with a projected score of CIN 4.0, TOR 4.8 and about 8.8 total runs. There is a 30% chance the game is decided by one run.
Brandon Williamson (LHP, CIN) projects to strike out 18.1% and put on 10.9% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.0 innings. Max Scherzer (RHP, TOR) projects to strike out 22.3% and put on 8.9% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.1 innings. Last season hitters managed a .332 xwOBA against him.
CIN's bullpen has 81% of its usual relief work rested (94 weighted pitches over the last three days); Graham Ashcraft is likely unavailable. TOR's bullpen has 83% of its usual relief work rested (166 weighted pitches over the last three days); Spencer Miles is likely unavailable.
Rogers Centre plays 0% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 76°F with 15 mph wind; John Bacon has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for CIN the biggest factor is lineup quality (-4% to their expected runs) and for TOR the biggest factor is opposing starter (+7% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | CIN 39% · TOR 61% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | CIN 4.0 – 4.8 TOR |
| Projected total runs | 8.8 |
| One-run game | 30% |
| CIN starter | Brandon Williamson (LHP): projected 18.1% strikeouts, 10.9% walks + HBP, 5.0 innings |
| TOR starter | Max Scherzer (RHP): projected 22.3% strikeouts, 8.9% walks + HBP, 5.1 innings |
| Ballpark | Rogers Centre (run factor -0.5%) |
Cincinnati Reds · Toronto Blue Jays · Brandon Williamson · Max Scherzer
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