New York Mets at Texas Rangers projection, 2026-09-24
The model gives the Texas Rangers a 51% chance of beating the New York Mets at Globe Life Field, with a projected score of NYM 4.6, TEX 4.5 and about 9.1 total runs. There is a 30% chance the game is decided by one run.
Zac Thornton (LHP, NYM) projects to strike out 19.1% and put on 7.3% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.5 innings. Kumar Rocker (RHP, TEX) projects to strike out 21.1% and put on 10.1% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.7 innings. Last season hitters managed a .364 xwOBA against him.
NYM's bullpen has 97% of its usual relief work rested (56 weighted pitches over the last three days). TEX's bullpen has 76% of its usual relief work rested (114 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Globe Life Field plays 3% below an average park for runs; the roof is expected to be closed; Erich Bacchus has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for NYM the biggest factor is lineup quality (+7% to their expected runs) and for TEX the biggest factor is opposing starter (+4% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | NYM 49% · TEX 51% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | NYM 4.6 – 4.5 TEX |
| Projected total runs | 9.1 |
| One-run game | 30% |
| NYM starter | Zac Thornton (LHP): projected 19.1% strikeouts, 7.3% walks + HBP, 5.5 innings |
| TEX starter | Kumar Rocker (RHP): projected 21.1% strikeouts, 10.1% walks + HBP, 4.7 innings |
| Ballpark | Globe Life Field (run factor -3.3%) |
New York Mets · Texas Rangers · Zac Thornton · Kumar Rocker
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