Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners projection, 2026-09-25
The model gives the Seattle Mariners a 55% chance of beating the Los Angeles Angels at T-Mobile Park, with a projected score of LAA 3.5, SEA 3.7 and about 7.2 total runs. There is a 35% chance the game is decided by one run.
Reid Detmers (LHP, LAA) projects to strike out 27.7% and put on 8.9% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.6 innings. Last season hitters managed a .296 xwOBA against him. Bryce Miller (RHP, SEA) projects to strike out 22.4% and put on 8.1% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.9 innings. Last season hitters managed a .352 xwOBA against him.
LAA's bullpen has 82% of its usual relief work rested (100 weighted pitches over the last three days); Sammy Peralta is likely unavailable. SEA's bullpen has 76% of its usual relief work rested (119 weighted pitches over the last three days); Cooper Criswell is likely unavailable.
T-Mobile Park plays 10% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 57°F with 5 mph wind; Andy Fletcher has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for LAA the biggest factor is weather (-7% to their expected runs) and for SEA the biggest factor is opposing starter (-10% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | LAA 45% · SEA 55% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | LAA 3.5 – 3.7 SEA |
| Projected total runs | 7.2 |
| One-run game | 35% |
| LAA starter | Reid Detmers (LHP): projected 27.7% strikeouts, 8.9% walks + HBP, 5.6 innings |
| SEA starter | Bryce Miller (RHP): projected 22.4% strikeouts, 8.1% walks + HBP, 4.9 innings |
| Ballpark | T-Mobile Park (run factor -9.9%) |
Los Angeles Angels · Seattle Mariners · Reid Detmers · Bryce Miller
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