Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners projection, 2026-09-24
The model gives the Seattle Mariners a 65% chance of beating the Los Angeles Angels at T-Mobile Park, with a projected score of LAA 3.3, SEA 4.4 and about 7.7 total runs. There is a 32% chance the game is decided by one run.
Grayson Rodriguez (RHP, LAA) projects to strike out 22.8% and put on 9.6% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.3 innings. Bryan Woo (RHP, SEA) projects to strike out 24.5% and put on 6.5% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.6 innings. Last season hitters managed a .274 xwOBA against him.
LAA's bullpen has 45% of its usual relief work rested (112 weighted pitches over the last three days); Blake Weiman, José Fermin, Mitch Farris are likely unavailable. SEA's bullpen has 55% of its usual relief work rested (120 weighted pitches over the last three days); José A. Ferrer, Carlos Vargas are likely unavailable.
T-Mobile Park plays 10% below an average park for runs; the roof is expected to be closed; Rob Drake has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for LAA the biggest factor is opposing starter (-10% to their expected runs) and for SEA the biggest factor is ballpark (-7% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | LAA 35% · SEA 65% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | LAA 3.3 – 4.4 SEA |
| Projected total runs | 7.7 |
| One-run game | 33% |
| LAA starter | Grayson Rodriguez (RHP): projected 22.8% strikeouts, 9.6% walks + HBP, 5.3 innings |
| SEA starter | Bryan Woo (RHP): projected 24.5% strikeouts, 6.5% walks + HBP, 5.6 innings |
| Ballpark | T-Mobile Park (run factor -10%) |
Los Angeles Angels · Seattle Mariners · Grayson Rodriguez · Bryan Woo
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