Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants projection, 2026-09-27
The model gives the Los Angeles Dodgers a 68% chance of beating the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park, with a projected score of LAD 5.6, SF 3.6 and about 9.2 total runs. There is a 27% chance the game is decided by one run.
Jack Dreyer (LHP, LAD) projects to strike out 25.5% and put on 8.2% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 3.5 innings. Last season hitters managed a .257 xwOBA against him. Carson Seymour (RHP, SF) projects to strike out 17.3% and put on 10.1% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.1 innings. Last season hitters managed a .370 xwOBA against him.
LAD's bullpen has 77% of its usual relief work rested (97 weighted pitches over the last three days); Tanner Scott is likely unavailable. SF's bullpen has 75% of its usual relief work rested (124 weighted pitches over the last three days); Tristan Beck is likely unavailable.
Oracle Park plays 5% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 61°F with 8 mph wind; Ryan Blakney has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for LAD the biggest factor is lineup quality (+13% to their expected runs) and for SF the biggest factor is lineup quality (-7% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | LAD 68% · SF 32% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | LAD 5.6 – 3.6 SF |
| Projected total runs | 9.2 |
| One-run game | 27% |
| LAD starter | Jack Dreyer (LHP): projected 25.5% strikeouts, 8.2% walks + HBP, 3.5 innings |
| SF starter | Carson Seymour (RHP): projected 17.3% strikeouts, 10.1% walks + HBP, 4.1 innings |
| Ballpark | Oracle Park (run factor -5%) |
Los Angeles Dodgers · San Francisco Giants · Jack Dreyer · Carson Seymour
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