Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants projection, 2026-09-26
The model gives the Los Angeles Dodgers a 69% chance of beating the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park, with a projected score of LAD 5.4, SF 3.3 and about 8.7 total runs. There is a 28% chance the game is decided by one run.
Blake Snell (LHP, LAD) projects to strike out 31.1% and put on 11.7% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.9 innings. Last season hitters managed a .283 xwOBA against him. Matt Wilkinson (LHP, SF) projects to strike out 19.6% and put on 7.3% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.5 innings.
LAD's bullpen has 94% of its usual relief work rested (62 weighted pitches over the last three days). SF's bullpen has 82% of its usual relief work rested (66 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Oracle Park plays 5% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 63°F with 7 mph wind; Nick Mahrley has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for LAD the biggest factor is lineup quality (+10% to their expected runs) and for SF the biggest factor is opposing starter (-9% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | LAD 69% · SF 31% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | LAD 5.4 – 3.3 SF |
| Projected total runs | 8.7 |
| One-run game | 28% |
| LAD starter | Blake Snell (LHP): projected 31.1% strikeouts, 11.7% walks + HBP, 4.9 innings |
| SF starter | Matt Wilkinson (LHP): projected 19.6% strikeouts, 7.3% walks + HBP, 4.5 innings |
| Ballpark | Oracle Park (run factor -4.9%) |
Los Angeles Dodgers · San Francisco Giants · Blake Snell · Matt Wilkinson
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