Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres projection, 2026-09-26
The model gives the San Diego Padres a 54% chance of beating the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park, with a projected score of AZ 4.5, SD 4.7 and about 9.2 total runs. There is a 29% chance the game is decided by one run.
Taylor Clarke (RHP, AZ) projects to strike out 19.5% and put on 7.0% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.2 innings. Last season hitters managed a .298 xwOBA against him. Walker Buehler (RHP, SD) projects to strike out 18.7% and put on 10.7% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.1 innings. Last season hitters managed a .355 xwOBA against him.
AZ's bullpen has 93% of its usual relief work rested (52 weighted pitches over the last three days). SD's bullpen has 70% of its usual relief work rested (146 weighted pitches over the last three days); Jason Adam, Kyle Hart, Wandy Peralta are likely unavailable.
Petco Park plays 8% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 76°F with 9 mph wind; Ben May has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for AZ the biggest factor is lineup quality (+6% to their expected runs) and for SD the biggest factor is ballpark (-6% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | AZ 46% · SD 54% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | AZ 4.5 – 4.7 SD |
| Projected total runs | 9.2 |
| One-run game | 29% |
| AZ starter | Taylor Clarke (RHP): projected 19.5% strikeouts, 7.0% walks + HBP, 4.2 innings |
| SD starter | Walker Buehler (RHP): projected 18.7% strikeouts, 10.7% walks + HBP, 5.1 innings |
| Ballpark | Petco Park (run factor -7.7%) |
Arizona Diamondbacks · San Diego Padres · Taylor Clarke · Walker Buehler
BullpenEdge publishes MLB statistics and model projections for analysis and entertainment. Projections are estimates, can be wrong, and are not advice of any kind. Not affiliated with Major League Baseball. See the Disclaimer and Methodology.