Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres projection, 2026-09-27
The model gives the Arizona Diamondbacks a 56% chance of beating the San Diego Padres at Petco Park, with a projected score of AZ 4.9, SD 4.1 and about 8.9 total runs. There is a 30% chance the game is decided by one run.
Michael Soroka (RHP, AZ) projects to strike out 23.8% and put on 10.3% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.2 innings. Last season hitters managed a .293 xwOBA against him. Randy Vásquez (RHP, SD) projects to strike out 14.9% and put on 9.1% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.9 innings. Last season hitters managed a .354 xwOBA against him.
AZ's bullpen has 63% of its usual relief work rested (163 weighted pitches over the last three days); Dennis Santana is likely unavailable. SD's bullpen has 34% of its usual relief work rested (158 weighted pitches over the last three days); Bradgley Rodriguez, David Morgan are likely unavailable.
Petco Park plays 8% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 78°F with 7 mph wind; John Tumpane has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for AZ the biggest factor is opposing starter (+8% to their expected runs) and for SD the biggest factor is ballpark (-5% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | AZ 56% · SD 44% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | AZ 4.9 – 4.1 SD |
| Projected total runs | 8.9 |
| One-run game | 30% |
| AZ starter | Michael Soroka (RHP): projected 23.8% strikeouts, 10.3% walks + HBP, 5.2 innings |
| SD starter | Randy Vásquez (RHP): projected 14.9% strikeouts, 9.1% walks + HBP, 4.9 innings |
| Ballpark | Petco Park (run factor -7.5%) |
Arizona Diamondbacks · San Diego Padres · Michael Soroka · Randy Vásquez
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