Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres projection, 2026-09-25
The model gives the Arizona Diamondbacks a 50% chance of beating the San Diego Padres at Petco Park, with a projected score of AZ 4.4, SD 4.1 and about 8.5 total runs. There is a 31% chance the game is decided by one run.
Brandon Pfaadt (RHP, AZ) projects to strike out 20.1% and put on 6.9% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.7 innings. Last season hitters managed a .352 xwOBA against him. Casey Mize (RHP, SD) projects to strike out 20.5% and put on 7.4% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.7 innings. Last season hitters managed a .298 xwOBA against him.
AZ's bullpen has 75% of its usual relief work rested (106 weighted pitches over the last three days); Taylor Clarke, Dennis Santana are likely unavailable. SD's bullpen has 61% of its usual relief work rested (122 weighted pitches over the last three days); Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, Yuki Matsui are likely unavailable.
Petco Park plays 8% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 74°F with 10 mph wind; Brennan Miller has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for AZ the biggest factor is lineup quality (+6% to their expected runs) and for SD the biggest factor is ballpark (-6% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | AZ 50% · SD 50% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | AZ 4.4 – 4.1 SD |
| Projected total runs | 8.5 |
| One-run game | 31% |
| AZ starter | Brandon Pfaadt (RHP): projected 20.1% strikeouts, 6.9% walks + HBP, 5.7 innings |
| SD starter | Casey Mize (RHP): projected 20.5% strikeouts, 7.4% walks + HBP, 4.7 innings |
| Ballpark | Petco Park (run factor -7.9%) |
Arizona Diamondbacks · San Diego Padres · Brandon Pfaadt · Casey Mize
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