Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees projection, 2026-09-25
The model gives the New York Yankees a 51% chance of beating the Baltimore Orioles at Yankee Stadium, with a projected score of BAL 4.5, NYY 4.3 and about 8.8 total runs. There is a 30% chance the game is decided by one run.
Trevor Rogers (LHP, BAL) projects to strike out 21.5% and put on 8.1% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 6.0 innings. Last season hitters managed a .288 xwOBA against him. Brendan Beck (RHP, NYY) projects to strike out 19.3% and put on 10.7% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.7 innings.
BAL's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (46 weighted pitches over the last three days). NYY's bullpen has 62% of its usual relief work rested (151 weighted pitches over the last three days); Michael Fulmer, Bradley Hanner, Luis Gil are likely unavailable.
Yankee Stadium plays 1% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 69°F with 17 mph wind; Edwin Moscoso has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for BAL the biggest factor is opposing starter (+12% to their expected runs) and for NYY the biggest factor is team run form (+5% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | BAL 49% · NYY 51% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | BAL 4.5 – 4.3 NYY |
| Projected total runs | 8.8 |
| One-run game | 30% |
| BAL starter | Trevor Rogers (LHP): projected 21.5% strikeouts, 8.1% walks + HBP, 6.0 innings |
| NYY starter | Brendan Beck (RHP): projected 19.3% strikeouts, 10.7% walks + HBP, 4.7 innings |
| Ballpark | Yankee Stadium (run factor -1.4%) |
Baltimore Orioles · New York Yankees · Trevor Rogers · Brendan Beck
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