Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins projection, 2026-09-27
The model gives the Minnesota Twins a 51% chance of beating the Texas Rangers at Target Field, with a projected score of TEX 4.3, MIN 4.1 and about 8.4 total runs. There is a 31% chance the game is decided by one run.
MacKenzie Gore (LHP, TEX) projects to strike out 24.8% and put on 10.4% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.8 innings. Last season hitters managed a .322 xwOBA against him. Dean Kremer (RHP, MIN) projects to strike out 21.3% and put on 8.6% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.1 innings. Last season hitters managed a .306 xwOBA against him.
TEX's bullpen has 75% of its usual relief work rested (123 weighted pitches over the last three days). MIN's bullpen has 69% of its usual relief work rested (82 weighted pitches over the last three days); Taylor Rogers, Travis Adams are likely unavailable.
Target Field plays 2% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 65°F with 3 mph wind; Nestor Ceja has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for TEX the biggest factor is weather (-4% to their expected runs) and for MIN the biggest factor is weather (-4% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | TEX 49% · MIN 51% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | TEX 4.3 – 4.1 MIN |
| Projected total runs | 8.4 |
| One-run game | 31% |
| TEX starter | MacKenzie Gore (LHP): projected 24.8% strikeouts, 10.4% walks + HBP, 4.8 innings |
| MIN starter | Dean Kremer (RHP): projected 21.3% strikeouts, 8.6% walks + HBP, 5.1 innings |
| Ballpark | Target Field (run factor +1.9%) |
Texas Rangers · Minnesota Twins · MacKenzie Gore · Dean Kremer
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