Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins projection, 2026-09-25
The model gives the Minnesota Twins a 50% chance of beating the Texas Rangers at Target Field, with a projected score of TEX 4.0, MIN 3.8 and about 7.8 total runs. There is a 33% chance the game is decided by one run.
Jacob deGrom (RHP, TEX) projects to strike out 29.2% and put on 6.7% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.0 innings. Last season hitters managed a .286 xwOBA against him. Joe Ryan (RHP, MIN) projects to strike out 27.0% and put on 7.0% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.0 innings. Last season hitters managed a .289 xwOBA against him.
TEX's bullpen has 68% of its usual relief work rested (109 weighted pitches over the last three days); Chase Silseth, Tyler Alexander are likely unavailable. MIN's bullpen has 100% of its usual relief work rested (43 weighted pitches over the last three days).
Target Field plays 2% above an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 68°F with 9 mph wind; Chris Guccione has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for TEX the biggest factor is opposing starter (-9% to their expected runs) and for MIN the biggest factor is opposing starter (-11% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | TEX 50% · MIN 50% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | TEX 4.0 – 3.8 MIN |
| Projected total runs | 7.8 |
| One-run game | 33% |
| TEX starter | Jacob deGrom (RHP): projected 29.2% strikeouts, 6.7% walks + HBP, 5.0 innings |
| MIN starter | Joe Ryan (RHP): projected 27.0% strikeouts, 7.0% walks + HBP, 5.0 innings |
| Ballpark | Target Field (run factor +1.9%) |
Texas Rangers · Minnesota Twins · Jacob deGrom · Joe Ryan
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