St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers projection, 2026-09-27

The model gives the Milwaukee Brewers a 71% chance of beating the St. Louis Cardinals at American Family Field, with a projected score of STL 3.2, MIL 4.8 and about 8.0 total runs. There is a 31% chance the game is decided by one run.

Andre Pallante (RHP, STL) projects to strike out 16.3% and put on 9.5% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.4 innings. Last season hitters managed a .321 xwOBA against him. Jacob Misiorowski (RHP, MIL) projects to strike out 35.7% and put on 9.1% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.1 innings. Last season hitters managed a .288 xwOBA against him.

STL's bullpen has 75% of its usual relief work rested (128 weighted pitches over the last three days); Cade Winquest, Gordon Graceffo are likely unavailable. MIL's bullpen has 65% of its usual relief work rested (131 weighted pitches over the last three days); Aaron Ashby, Kyle Harrison, JoJo Romero are likely unavailable.

American Family Field plays 3% below an average park for runs; first-pitch forecast is 70°F with 5 mph wind; Derek Thomas has the plate.

By the model's breakdown, for STL the biggest factor is opposing starter (-16% to their expected runs) and for MIL the biggest factor is team run form (+5% to their expected runs).

St. Louis Cardinals · Milwaukee Brewers · Andre Pallante · Jacob Misiorowski

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