St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers projection, 2026-09-26
The model gives the Milwaukee Brewers a 60% chance of beating the St. Louis Cardinals at American Family Field, with a projected score of STL 4.2, MIL 4.8 and about 8.9 total runs. There is a 30% chance the game is decided by one run.
Quinn Mathews (LHP, STL) projects to strike out 20.9% and put on 9.9% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 5.5 innings. Dustin May (RHP, MIL) projects to strike out 21.7% and put on 10.5% (walks plus hit batters) of the batters he faces, and to work about 4.1 innings. Last season hitters managed a .349 xwOBA against him.
STL's bullpen has 67% of its usual relief work rested (148 weighted pitches over the last three days); Luis Gastelum, Brycen Mautz are likely unavailable. MIL's bullpen has 89% of its usual relief work rested (105 weighted pitches over the last three days).
American Family Field plays 3% below an average park for runs; the roof is expected to be closed; Jordan Baker has the plate.
By the model's breakdown, for STL the biggest factor is team run form (-5% to their expected runs) and for MIL the biggest factor is team run form (+5% to their expected runs).
| Win probability | STL 40% · MIL 60% |
|---|---|
| Projected score | STL 4.2 – 4.8 MIL |
| Projected total runs | 8.9 |
| One-run game | 30% |
| STL starter | Quinn Mathews (LHP): projected 20.9% strikeouts, 9.9% walks + HBP, 5.5 innings |
| MIL starter | Dustin May (RHP): projected 21.7% strikeouts, 10.5% walks + HBP, 4.1 innings |
| Ballpark | American Family Field (run factor -2.7%) |
St. Louis Cardinals · Milwaukee Brewers · Quinn Mathews · Dustin May
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